Ten years on from the 2016 referendum, Northern Ireland has emerged as the UK region with the strongest economic growth, a result that cannot be reduced to a single cause. Between 2015 and 2023 the province's economy expanded by 16.5%, outstripping every other major UK region and exceeding the overall UK growth rate of 11% over the same period.
That performance builds on momentum that began well before the Brexit vote. Marie Doyle, a partner at Deloitte in Belfast, emphasised that the referendum introduced significant uncertainty for businesses across Britain, but noted Northern Ireland was already on an upward trajectory. "We are, and have been, a post-conflict society. We have been on a quietly upward economic trajectory really since pre-Brexit - maybe the late noughties, the early teens, when we were starting to see some significant investment into Belfast," she said.
Measured growth across regions
Official statistics show the variation in regional performance. Northern Ireland's 16.5% growth from 2015 to 2023 compares with the UK as a whole at 11% and Scotland, which recorded the slowest growth among the major regions at 7%.
Services sector: atypical gains
The services sector dominates the Northern Irish economy, but its composition and performance have notable differences from the wider UK. Financial services output in Northern Ireland rose by 50% between 2015 and 2023, a stark contrast with a 24% decline in financial services output across the UK during the same period. Deloitte attributes part of this relative gain to Northern Ireland's proximity to Dublin, which has itself been an attractive financial centre within the EU after the UK left the single market.
Retail has also outperformed. While retail sales volumes in much of the UK remain below their pre-pandemic levels, Northern Ireland has seen retail activity recover and thrive. Analysts point to the sustained depreciation of sterling as a factor that has encouraged residents of the Republic of Ireland to travel north for shopping, supporting sales in Northern Irish stores.
Growing integration with the Republic of Ireland
Trade patterns indicate a marked shift toward greater economic integration with Ireland. Excluding the financial sector, the share of goods and services in Northern Ireland originating from the Republic rose from 14% in 2015 to 26% in 2024, according to data from the Northern Ireland Statistics Agency. Over the same timeframe, the share of trade with the rest of the UK declined from 59% to 51%.
Doyle noted that Belfast is increasingly attractive to international firms for reasons that include lower labour costs, more affordable property and the availability of skilled workers. Deloitte has observed a surge in cross-border merger and acquisition activity, she said, characterising the relationship with the south not merely as a supply-chain linkage but as "an integrated business model on the island that is really taking off."
The 2023 Windsor Agreement has also been highlighted as beneficial for Northern Ireland's manufacturing sector because it allows the province to access both the EU single market for goods and the UK internal market concurrently.
Where this leaves markets and sectors
Northern Ireland's relative outperformance is concentrated in services, notably financial services and retail, and reinforced by manufacturing advantages tied to dual market access. The reorientation of trade flows toward the Republic of Ireland has altered the province's economic linkages and appears to be supporting foreign investment and cross-border corporate activity.
While the data show clear growth differentials, the drivers are multifaceted: longstanding investment inflows, a stronger-than-expected services rebound in some segments, consumer behaviour shaped by exchange-rate movements, and policy measures that preserve market access to both the EU and the UK.