Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
450 total articles
UBS now anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift its cash rate by 25 basis points at the May 5 meeting and deliver another hike in August, taking the terminal cash rate to 4.6%. The revision follows trimmed mean CPI data that marginally undershot expectations even as year-over-year inflation readings point to persistent price pressures. …
The dollar remained firm in Asian trading after the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a more hawkish stance, helping the dollar index sit near two-week highs. The Fed left policy rates unchanged but recorded dissent among three officials opposed to easing language. Rising oil prices amid tensions between the U.S. and Iran lifted Brent above…
Emerging-market currencies weakened Wednesday morning after Brent crude climbed past $117 per barrel and the US signalled a continued naval blockade of Iranian ports. The dollar's strength, driven by a move into safer assets, pressured developing-nation FX and stocks while investors revised expectations for the timing of U.S. rate cuts. Central ban…
State-run oil refiners in India are making limited use of a special foreign exchange (FX) credit line provided through the country’s largest bank. Traders and industry sources say the rupee’s renewed weakness and high oil import bills have made the facility less attractive, prompting refiners to split dollar needs between the credit line, spot purc…
Sterling and the euro retreated modestly against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's rate decision and Jerome Powell's final press conference as Chair. Short-lived equity volatility driven by AI concerns gave the dollar initial backing, but month-end rebalancing flows limited any sustained advance. Geopolitical fricti…
Iran’s currency dropped to a new record low against the U.S. dollar as previously suppressed demand for foreign exchange entered the open market following a ceasefire. The fall coincides with export suspensions, a U.S. blockade on Gulf shipping and sharply elevated inflation, intensifying pressure on Tehran’s ability to earn hard currency.
UBS has increased its USD/JPY forecasts across the coming quarters, citing elevated oil prices and a cautious Bank of Japan as constraints on a rapid yen recovery. The bank raised its end-June target to 158 and left open a gradual yen strengthening path as yield differentials narrow and market expectations for Fed easing evolve.
The U.S. dollar remained broadly steady in Asian trading as markets focused on a two-day Federal Reserve meeting expected to end with unchanged rates. The Australian dollar weakened after March consumer inflation figures came in slightly below forecasts, though data still showed a notable monthly rise largely driven by fuel costs tied to the Iran w…
A recent Crisil Coalition Greenwich report highlights rising use of algorithmic execution in foreign-exchange trading and the growing role of nonbank liquidity providers. About a quarter of buy-side desks now use or plan to use nonbanks for FX trades, drawn by pricing, technology, and execution quality, while long-standing bank relationships contin…
Sterling and the euro declined versus the dollar on Tuesday after a tepid reaction in Washington to Iran's proposed interim ceasefire - a plan that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear negotiations. The softer reception helped push oil higher and reintroduced uncertainty across markets. Despite these developments, the dollar h…
Bank of America warns that South Korea’s currency may come under further strain as outbound direct investment jumps to $72 billion in 2025 and shifts toward developed markets, particularly the United States and Europe. The bank highlights that manufacturing makes up less than a quarter of outbound flows, while finance and insurance dominate, and th…
The Japanese yen firmed after the Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged but signalled readiness to raise them as inflation risks grow. The dollar was largely steady ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting, while broader Asian currencies weakened on renewed concerns about a U.S.-Iran stalemate and rising oil prices. Market attention now turns to Aust…
Venezuela's interim central bank chief, Luis Alberto Pérez, told public and private banking representatives that the institution anticipates a period of exchange-rate stability and a slowdown in inflation. He reported the economy grew in the first quarter, marking 20 consecutive quarters of expansion, noted a narrowing gap between official and para…
Sterling and the euro rose slightly against the dollar after an overnight report that Iran submitted a fresh proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz lifted investor risk appetite. Gains were limited as oil prices remained elevated and a heavy calendar of central bank meetings, including the Fed, ECB and BoJ, kept markets cautious. UK pound and euro m…
Bank of America analysts recommend hedging exposure to the British pound despite a strong April for the currency, citing a historically weak May seasonal pattern, low market-implied volatility, and what they see as underpriced political uncertainty ahead of local elections. Technical indicators on GBP/USD add to the downside case, and the bank iden…
UBS projects that standard end-of-month portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors will underpin the dollar versus the yen through the end of April. The bank's model, which factors in relative equity performance, points to USD/JPY remaining supported in the near term. The signal registers as a moderate +3 on UBS's -5 to +5 scale.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States is in talks about establishing currency swap lines with partners in the Gulf and Asia after several allies requested assistance to manage energy shocks and other effects from the Iran war. Bessent noted such arrangements could strengthen international dollar liquidity and help create new dolla…
Most Asian currencies strengthened on Monday as the dollar eased marginally ahead of imminent meetings at the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. Risk sentiment showed tentative improvement after diplomatic moves and reports of potential proposals linked to the Strait of Hormuz, but markets remain wary following the collapse of talks between the…
Goldman Sachs says the Canadian dollar has held up among G10 currencies in recent weeks even as domestic indicators have softened. March inflation undershot expectations despite an energy shock, and employment has stabilised with only modest improvement versus a year earlier. The firm anticipates the Bank of Canada will stay on hold at its April me…
Goldman Sachs argues that global developments will increasingly outweigh regional UK factors in determining sterling's path as markets contend with a protracted terms-of-trade shock. The bank notes a recent improvement in UK data against a weakening euro area, but warns that domestic issues - including monetary policy expectations, valuation metric…
Goldman Sachs has reduced its USD/BRL projections across the near and medium term, citing a stronger Brazilian real driven by improved terms of trade, a recovery in risky assets and comparatively high carry. The bank says the real's relative strength should persist while energy prices remain elevated and risk sentiment holds, but it warns that a re…
Goldman Sachs says the U.S. dollar's path is being influenced by an unexpectedly small supply shock from ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. While higher energy prices and product scarcities are altering global balances, the bank finds the immediate economic effects less conspicuous than initially feared. Goldman has trimmed global growth forec…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on April 24 that discussions about expanding U.S. dollar swap lines with Gulf and Asian allies are part of routine diplomatic and financial conversations. In a post on X, Bessent said additional swap lines can reinforce international dollar usage, improve liquidity in dollar funding markets, and support trade a…
A reduction in market turbulence has helped the carry trade deliver roughly 12% gains so far in 2026, its best start in three years. Rising oil prices have bolstered commodity-linked currencies, and major banks continue to recommend variations of the strategy while hedge funds and asset managers pursue short- and longer-term positions.
Sterling and the euro made small gains on Friday as the dollar weakened broadly, but fragile risk sentiment tied to an escalating Gulf crisis and renewed inflation worries limited market momentum. GBP/USD and EUR/USD rose marginally, supported in part by better-than-expected UK retail sales, even as policymakers and investors weigh the implications…
