Oil markets moved higher on Monday as talks between the United States and Iran produced few signs of forward movement, leaving shipments through the Strait of Hormuz restricted and stoking concerns that disruptions could persist.
By 09:51 ET (13:51 GMT) Brent crude futures had risen 2% to $107.46 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate also gained 2% to $96.29 a barrel.
Analysts monitoring the situation point to the potential for much larger price moves if the conflict endures. "One must not rule out a pop above $150, if the conflict drags on," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. He added that in the event of a prolonged disruption, supply losses would outstrip demand destruction.
"Alternative energy is not readily available in vast quantity to make up for the shortfall. Consequently, consumers will have no choice but to live with higher oil prices," Varga said.
Investors were also watching reports that Iran submitted a new proposal intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, a development first reported by Axios. That proposal reportedly would defer discussions over Iran's nuclear program, a condition likely to face resistance in Washington, which has demanded that Tehran surrender uranium stockpiles and cease nuclear activities.
The diplomatic picture remained unclear after U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled a planned trip by American officials to Pakistan for talks with Iran over the weekend, shortly after Iranian officials left Islamabad. Earlier in April, Trump had extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, but major differences between the parties persist. Iran has called for the lifting of a U.S. naval blockade of its ports, while the U.S. has insisted that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened before substantive peace negotiations can proceed.
Varga cautioned that even a negotiated settlement would not immediately dispel market unease. "Even if the conflict ends today, the risk premium will remain elevated for a long period of time, even if the oil balance loosens considerably," he said.
He also pointed to the fragile Israeli-Lebanon ceasefire as another factor unsettling investors, noting the ongoing risk that renewed hostilities could target regional oil infrastructure and reignite supply concerns.
The current price action and the comments from market observers underscore how sensitive global crude markets remain to disruptions along key shipping lanes and to geopolitical uncertainty. With constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz and limited short-term alternatives to lost supplies, the market continues to price in a meaningful premium for risk.