SAO PAULO, Aug 31 - Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and best-selling author without experience in elected office, has gained notable traction in Brazil's presidential contest, inserting himself into a race long dominated by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
Recent television appearances and an expansive reach on social media have coincided with a rise in Cury's reported standing in first-round voting scenarios released on Monday. In a Nexus poll commissioned by lender BTG Pactual, Cury recorded 11% support, up from 2% in previous measures. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed him at 7.8%, up from 1.6%.
Those increments place the 67-year-old Cury in third place in the snapshots of first-round preferences, marking an unusual shift in a contest that has largely been framed as a contest between the leftist Lula and the right-leaning Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The new numbers underscore how television exposure and online influence have translated into measurable support in the lead-up to the October vote.
Cury is running on the ticket of the relatively small Avante party and has deliberately framed his candidacy as a break from the entrenched polarization between left and right. He has repeated a campaign slogan that emphasizes focusing on practical priorities - summarized as "Centered on what matters" - and has avoided labeling himself as aligned with either political flank.
Analysts warn it is premature to assume Cury's gains will hold. Observers point to the fragmented nature of opposition preferences and the fluidity of voter decisions as the campaign progresses. Polling published alongside Cury's rise showed Lula leading Bolsonaro - Nexus at 39% to 33% and AtlasIntel at 43.4% to 33.7% - illustrating that the frontrunners retain a substantial share of first-round support.
Electoral rules mean that if no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two finishers move to a runoff. Commenting on the potential interplay of vote-switching and strategic voting, Eurasia Group said: "To threaten Bolsonaro, an alternative conservative candidate would need to rise further in polls and reach roughly 15% around mid-September (with Bolsonaro simultaneously falling to about 25%) to credibly make a case for strategic voting against Lula."
Cury's profile outside politics rests on his medical career and his work as an author and public speaker on psychology and emotional well-being. He has said he has sold 42 million books in more than 70 countries and has described himself as the world's most-read psychiatrist. That claim could not be independently verified. He also maintains a substantial social media following, with 10.7 million Instagram followers - a figure close to Senator Flavio Bolsonaro's 11.4 million and somewhat smaller than President Lula's 14.9 million.
Born in Sao Paulo state, Brazil's most populous state, Cury presents himself as an outsider bringing managerial experience to public office. He has described additional facets of his background beyond medicine and publishing, saying he is a rural producer and business manager. He has offered a blend of rhetorical positions on policy, criticizing some of Lula's measures while asserting a mixed personal philosophy: "My mind is capitalist, my heart is social," he told reporters.
As the campaign advances toward October, Cury's ascent adds an element of unpredictability to a contest that has been described as mainly a two-way contest. Whether his recent polling gains will translate into lasting momentum, or simply reflect temporary shifts tied to media visibility and social followings, remains an open question acknowledged by analysts and reflected in the dispersed opposition vote totals.