World July 9, 2026 08:51 AM

Mexico's June Inflation Slows to 3.37%, Lowest Annual Rate Since 2020

Core prices and producer indices show cooling momentum as Banxico maintains a 6.50% policy rate

By Jordan Park
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Mexico's annual consumer price inflation dropped to 3.37% in June, the weakest pace since 2020, with core inflation easing to 4.03% and the National Producer Price Index declining month-on-month. The central bank held its benchmark rate at 6.50% in June and signaled that keeping borrowing costs unchanged is appropriate amid an uneven slowdown in price pressures.

Mexico's June Inflation Slows to 3.37%, Lowest Annual Rate Since 2020
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Key Points

  • Headline annual consumer inflation slowed to 3.37% in June, the weakest rate since 2020.
  • Core inflation eased to 4.03% year on year, with monthly increases of 0.18% for merchandise and 0.30% for services - sectors that influence domestic consumption and service-sector pricing.
  • Banxico held the policy rate at 6.50% in June, stating that keeping rates unchanged is appropriate amid an uneven slowdown in inflation; the central bank's target is 3% plus or minus one percentage point.

Mexico's headline consumer price inflation slowed to 3.37% year on year in June, the national statistics institute INEGI reported Thursday. That reading is the slowest annual pace recorded since 2020 and was below the 3.5% median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The June outcome followed a 3.94% annual rate in May.

The National Consumer Price Index registered at 145.131 in June 2026, representing a monthly decline of 0.27% compared with May. By contrast, monthly inflation in June 2025 had been 0.28%, and annual inflation at that time was 4.32%.

Core inflation - which excludes food and fuel - moderated to 4.03% from a year earlier, slightly below the 4.10% median estimate. On a monthly basis the core price index rose 0.24%. Within that, merchandise prices increased by 0.18% month on month while service prices rose 0.30%.

The central bank's inflation objective is 3%, plus or minus one percentage point. Against that benchmark, the latest readings show headline inflation inside the target band and core inflation still above the midpoint.

Banxico kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% in June. Policymakers described holding borrowing costs steady as the appropriate response to a still-uneven slowdown in inflation, a position that the slower readings give the central bank more flexibility to evaluate over time whether the decline in price pressures is durable.

On the production side, the National Producer Price Index fell 0.87% month on month in June 2026 and rose 2.10% on the year. The Intermediate Goods and Services Index dropped 1.38% month on month and increased 0.70% year on year.

These data points together depict a cooling in both consumer and producer price dynamics in June, while core inflation remains elevated relative to the central bank's 3% target midpoint. Policymakers at Banxico have signaled a cautious approach, maintaining the policy rate as they assess the persistence of the disinflationary trend.

Risks

  • Core inflation remains above the central bank's 3% midpoint, posing a risk to consumer-price stability and potentially affecting monetary policy decisions - impacting financial markets and borrowing costs.
  • The uneven nature of the inflation slowdown creates uncertainty for policymakers on whether price pressures will continue to ease, which could influence interest-rate expectations and financial sector positioning.
  • Variability between consumer and producer price trends - with the Producer Price Index falling month on month but still up year on year - leaves uncertainty for manufacturing and intermediate goods sectors regarding input-cost pressures.

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