Stock Markets August 4, 2026 11:24 AM

Where equity upside sits as stablecoins move from niche to mainstream

A three-tier map of stocks exposed to stablecoin adoption, from direct issuers to payment rails and emerging infrastructure

By Caleb Monroe
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CRCL COIN PYPL V MA

Stablecoin activity has accelerated into a tangible market force: Western Union rolled out a stablecoin-backed Visa card in 37 markets, Circle’s USDC revenue rose +51.5% year-over-year, and Cloudflare introduced digital wallets designed for AI agents. Investors can approach the theme across three distinct equity buckets - pure stablecoin issuers, established payment rails that will benefit from settlement flows, and infrastructure players positioning for programmatic payments - each with different risk and return profiles.

Where equity upside sits as stablecoins move from niche to mainstream
CRCL COIN PYPL V MA
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Key Points

  • Stablecoin activity is now manifesting in commercial products and corporate revenue lines: Western Union launched a stablecoin-backed Visa card in 37 markets, Circle’s USDC revenue rose +51.5%, and Cloudflare introduced wallets for AI agents.
  • Three equity exposure tiers exist - pure stablecoin issuers (e.g., Circle, Coinbase), payment rails and fintechs with built-in settlement capture (e.g., PayPal, Visa, Mastercard), and speculative infrastructure plays (e.g., Cloudflare).
  • Investor choice depends on risk appetite: direct volume plays offer higher upside and higher risk, payment rails provide steadier capture of settlement economics, and infrastructure bets are early and speculative.

Stablecoins are moving from theoretical to practical use cases, and that shift is showing up in corporate product launches and quarterly results. Recent developments include Western Union launching a stablecoin-backed Visa card across 37 markets, Circle posting a +51.5% increase in USDC-related revenue last year, and Cloudflare unveiling digital wallets for AI agents that rely on stablecoins for settlement. These events frame a market in which investors can choose exposure across three distinct tiers of equities, each with its own risk-reward characteristics.


Tier 1 - Direct exposure: pure stablecoin volume plays

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) represents the most direct way to own the stablecoin story. Circle issues USDC, the world’s second-largest stablecoin, and its economics hinge on the interest earned on reserves backing each unit in circulation. The company’s USDC revenue grew +51.5% year-over-year, and analysts assign a +65.7% upside to current prices from a $62.60 share price. The straightforward bull case is that increased stablecoin circulation translates into greater interest income for Circle.

That directness cuts both ways. Circle reports a gross margin of 8.1% and is loss-making, reflected in a reported P/E of -1,082x, which emphasizes the company’s elevated risk if reserve yields compress. Rising interest rates have acted as a tailwind to reserve income, while any material decline in interest rates would be a direct headwind.

Coinbase Global (COIN) is another way to buy into USDC volume while keeping broader crypto infrastructure exposure. Coinbase co-created USDC with Circle and earns a revenue share on USDC holdings, but the company is not a single-theme play. Coinbase’s most recent reported revenue change was -9.2% last twelve months, underscoring sensitivity to crypto market cycles. Analyst consensus pegs a +36.5% upside to current pricing from a $149.07 share level, making Coinbase appear as a recovery-plus-stablecoin combination.


Tier 2 - Payment rails: built-in beneficiaries

Payment-network incumbents and large fintech platforms receive stablecoin exposure without relying solely on reserve economics. PayPal (PYPL) is notable: it issues PYUSD, its own stablecoin, and currently trades at roughly $58.07. PayPal presents what the data calls a value-rich route into the theme - the company trades at 10.1x earnings, carries a free cash flow yield of 13.3%, and has a fair value upside of +56.0% per the metrics cited. That combination makes PayPal the cheapest name in this grouping while still owning an on-platform stablecoin.

Card networks operate like toll roads for transaction settlement, so they can benefit regardless of whether the underlying collateral is fiat or stablecoins. Visa (V) is a clear example: the Western Union stablecoin-backed Visa card rollout across 37 markets uses USDPT and settles over Visa’s rails. Visa’s reported revenue growth is +14.4% and the business shows an extremely large gross margin of 97.7%. The company is priced at $368.14 and, while Visa does not need stablecoins to succeed, broader adoption of stablecoin payments would likely increase settled volume across its network.

Mastercard (MA) occupies a similar position as a payments infrastructure provider. At a quoted $572.18 per share, Mastercard shows revenue growth of +16.0%, a P/E of 30.7x and a modest fair value upside of +1.1% alongside a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. These metrics position Mastercard as a structurally defensive way to capture any incremental settlement activity that flows through traditional card rails.


Tier 3 - Emerging plumbing: speculative infrastructure plays

Infrastructure firms building programmable interfaces for new kinds of transactions represent a third, higher-uncertainty bucket. Cloudflare Inc (NET) announced the launch of Cloudflare Wallets for AI agents, explicitly positioning stablecoins as the settlement layer for autonomous agent-to-agent transactions. The thesis here is non-traditional: as AI agents execute transactions without direct human intervention, they require programmatic money for settlement and stablecoins can fulfill that role.

Cloudflare underpins a large portion of internet infrastructure, and if AI-agent payments scale material volumes, the company’s networking and security stack could become a backbone for those flows. That pathway is early and speculative, however, making Cloudflare an emerging wildcard rather than a core stablecoin pure play.


Putting it together - a short verdict by appetite

  • Most upside, most risk: Circle Internet Group (CRCL) - direct stablecoin issuer with +65.7% analyst upside.
  • Best value combined with stablecoin exposure: PayPal (PYPL) - 10.1x P/E, +56% fair value upside, issuer of PYUSD.
  • Safest structural beneficiary: Visa (V) - a toll road for settlement that already clears stablecoin-backed card settlements.
  • Emerging wildcard: Cloudflare Inc (NET) - early positioning with agent-focused wallet infrastructure and stablecoin settlement.

The recent Western Union/Visa card announcement and product moves from Circle and Cloudflare make clear that stablecoins have moved beyond theoretical discussion into present-day commercial deployments. For investors, the choice is between direct volume exposure with higher variability, payment networks that capture settlement economics with lower direct risk, and nascent infrastructure plays that may pay off only if new transactional paradigms scale.

Risks

  • Reserve income sensitivity - Circle’s model depends on interest earned on reserves; falling interest rates would directly reduce that income and hit margin-sensitive economics, affecting the issuer and related financial sectors.
  • Crypto cycle exposure - Coinbase’s revenue has dipped -9.2% LTM, highlighting how broader crypto market volatility can impact firms that share in stablecoin economics, with implications for exchange and trading platforms.
  • Speculative adoption risk - Cloudflare’s AI-agent wallet opportunity is early-stage; if programmatic agent transactions do not scale, infrastructure providers positioning for such flows face uncertain returns, affecting the cloud and internet infrastructure sector.

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