Wall Street has moved to place official price targets on Space Exploration Technologies following the company's recent public offering, with four banks starting coverage and arriving at targets that range from $190 to $300. The divergence in those targets largely mirrors how each analyst team values SpaceX’s distinct lines of business - launches, connectivity via satellites and AI-related compute ambitions.
Morgan Stanley published the most optimistic set of numbers, initiating coverage at Overweight with a $300 target. The firm outlined an "intentionally wide $75 bear case and $600 bull case," and characterized SpaceX as occupying "an 'X of 1' position in space infrastructure." Morgan Stanley’s team emphasized what they see as unusually favorable terrestrial data-center economics for the company, estimating SpaceX could operate at roughly half the industry average cost for those facilities. At the same time, they flagged a substantial funding requirement in the middle years, projecting that SpaceX will need about $84 billion per year in outside capital from 2027 through 2034 before the business becomes free-cash-flow positive.
RBC Capital Markets started coverage with an Outperform rating and a $225 target, applying about 15 times its 2029 EBITDA estimate. RBC’s note centers on compute as a durable competitive advantage, writing that "AI models and applications may come and go, but compute lasts forever." The bank identified the flight-test cadence for Starship as the leading near-term catalyst for the stock, and also pointed to the pending Cursor acquisition and the rollout of Starlink’s next-generation V3 satellites as important upcoming events.
Stifel began coverage with a Buy rating and set the most conservative of the four targets at $190. That firm’s analysis focuses on launch economics, arguing that the company with the "lowest cost to orbit wins everything above it." Stifel credited Falcon 9’s reusability with compressing launch costs to approximately $3,000 per kilogram, a level it said competitors have not matched. However, Stifel applied a smaller multiple to the AI segment specifically, citing execution risk for orbital data centers that remain unproven at commercial scale.
UBS entered coverage with a Buy rating and a $210 target. UBS sized the combined market opportunity across launch, connectivity and AI at nearly $30 trillion under an outcome where Starship performs as expected. The bank projected revenue and EBITDA to grow at roughly 70% and 90% annual rates, respectively, through 2031, and forecast launch costs falling to about $200 per kilogram from roughly $1,000 currently. UBS framed the public shares as offering investors what it called "a call option" on the longer-term vision of making life multiplanetary, while keeping such an outcome outside its base-case assumptions.
The wave of analyst coverage arrives less than a month after SpaceX completed its Nasdaq debut. The company priced its initial public offering at $135 a share on June 12 and raised about $86 billion, marking the largest offering on record. Since the IPO, shares have generally traded above the offering price, though they remain below the approximately $225 peak seen in the early weeks of trading; the stock closed Monday at $160.42.
Contextual notes - Analysts pointed to several specific catalysts and considerations: Starship flight-test cadence, the Cursor acquisition, the rollout of Starlink V3 satellites, the relative cost advantages in terrestrial compute and launch operations, and the multiyear external funding need estimated by Morgan Stanley.