UBS has downgraded Ferretti from "buy" to "neutral" and lowered its target price to €3.15 from €3.70, citing a more challenging market environment for luxury yachts and risks tied to order conversion and execution under new leadership. Despite what UBS calls an undemanding valuation, the broker sees limited near-term drivers to propel the shares higher.
In assessing Ferretti’s first-half 2026 performance, UBS said the results highlighted a difficult backdrop that is depressing both order intake and the company’s prospects for the full year. That assessment prompted the broker to reduce its earnings projections and to expect that consensus estimates are likely to be revised downward more broadly.
UBS noted the stock now trades at roughly 4x estimated 2027 EV/EBITDA, a level that it views as constraining valuation downside. Nonetheless, the broker argued that muted operational momentum, ongoing earnings risk, and an absence of clear catalysts could keep the shares stuck in a trading range rather than delivering meaningful upside.
Key data from Ferretti’s second quarter and the first half of 2026 underpinned UBS’s view:
- Second-quarter order intake was €162 million, down 18% year-on-year but about 7% ahead of UBS’s €152 million estimate.
- Net revenue from new yachts totaled €284 million, down 3% from the prior year and 2% above UBS’s €277 million forecast.
- Adjusted EBITDA came in at €44 million, slightly below UBS’s €45 million estimate, implying a 15.4% margin - a 50 basis-point decline versus the year-ago period.
- Net backlog was €565 million at the end of June, a 22% decline from the prior quarter.
- Net cash improved to €95 million from €18 million at the end of March, aided by a seasonal release of working capital tied to deliveries.
UBS reported that Ferretti’s management attributed the downward revision to a combination of slower order conversion, weaker fixed-cost absorption and pricing pressure. Management also flagged geopolitical uncertainty - particularly in the Middle East - and a broader macroeconomic setting that has extended customer decision timelines and lengthened negotiations.
Reflecting these dynamics, UBS reduced its forecast for 2026 order intake to an annual decline of 28%, versus a prior expectation of a 20% fall. The broker subsequently trimmed revenue and profitability projections through the outer years, cutting its forecast adjusted EBITDA margin for 2026 to 15.1% from 15.6% and lowering earnings-per-share estimates by 13% for 2026, 10% for 2027 and 9% for 2028.
UBS also highlighted execution risk as Ferretti’s new chief executive, Mr. Anastassov, prepares strategic changes in the wake of governance issues that dominated the first half of 2026. While the broker anticipates a forthcoming strategy update and medium-term targets, it said it will take a cautious stance until it sees greater clarity on execution.
Within the listed luxury yacht segment, UBS continues to express a preference for Sanlorenzo.