Strategy (MSTR) enters its Q2 reporting period ending June 30 with a market price of $93.32 - 77% beneath its 52-week peak of $414.36. Analysts are penciling in earnings per share of $0.79 and revenue of $122.93M. Yet the determinative figure for the quarter is not the top-line software number: it is the company’s Bitcoin position.
On the books, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoin acquired at an average cost of $75,476 per coin. With BTC trading near $65K as the quarter closed, GAAP fair-value accounting rules mean the P&L will almost certainly reflect a sizeable unrealized loss. That dynamic has dominated recent prints - Q1 FY2026 produced EPS of -$38.25 versus -$18.98 expected, and Q4 FY2025 showed EPS of -$42.93 against a +$2.97 estimate - both substantial misses attributable to mark-to-market swings. Against that backdrop, the $0.79 EPS consensus for Q2 appears optimistic if cryptocurrency prices remain below the company’s average cost.
Software business: steady but secondary
When stripped of Bitcoin volatility, Strategy’s software operations have been steady. Recent quarterly revenue figures illustrate a narrow range:
- Q1 FY2026: $124.3M - $0.8M miss vs. estimate
- Q4 FY2025: $123.0M + $4.2M beat vs. estimate
- Q3 FY2025: $128.7M + $12.3M beat vs. estimate
- Q2 FY2025: $114.5M + $0.8M beat vs. estimate
Consensus revenue for Q2 FY2026 is $122.93M, a figure that has shown little volatility quarter to quarter. Historically, this revenue line has not been the immediate driver of the equity’s price action; fair-value adjustments on Bitcoin holdings have had far larger effects.
Balance sheet and capital actions
Around the results, management’s capital allocation choices matter as much as market moves in BTC. The company did not purchase Bitcoin for roughly four consecutive weeks approaching the quarter close, and simultaneously sold MSTR shares to raise cash - $544.5M was raised between July 20 and July 26 alone. Those proceeds added to the company’s USD reserve, which stands at $3.75B and is described as roughly 25 months of preferred stock dividend coverage.
On July 24, Strategy rolled out new internal metrics - Net Reserve ($36.6B), Net BTC Per Share, and BTC Hurdle ARR - which management is likely to emphasize on the earnings call as a way to reframe how investors should evaluate the company alongside traditional GAAP reporting.
Preferred debt remains a headline risk
An unresolved element on the capital structure is the preferred shares (STRC). Distressed-debt managers that hold the preferreds are reportedly in restructuring discussions with Moelis & Co. about a potential swap. Strategy has repurchased $25M of STRC at approximately $86.52, a discount to the $100 stated value, and still has $975M remaining under its buyback authorization. Any progress or concrete update on preferred-share negotiations could produce significant movement in the common stock.
Analyst landscape
Analyst views vary. Representative broker notes and targets cited include:
- Cantor Fitzgerald - Buy, $570 price target
- Mizuho - Overweight, $212 price target
- Mizuho - Outperform, $213 price target (down from $265)
- Canaccord - Buy, $130 price target (down)
Proponents of the stock point to the long-term Bitcoin thesis, while skeptics note the stock’s -39.6% year-to-date performance and that current equity pricing implies a market capitalization of about $35B compared with gross Bitcoin holdings of roughly $55B - which management’s own "Net Reserve" calculation reduces by about $22B for debt and preferred claims.
Key items to watch on July 30
- BTC fair-value adjustment - the largest single swing factor for EPS
- Software revenue versus the $122.93M consensus
- How management introduces and contextualizes Net Reserve and Net BTC Per Share metrics
- Any update on preferred stock negotiations with Moelis and distressed holders
- Forward guidance on Bitcoin accumulation - whether buying resumes
For this reporting cycle, the headline EPS number will likely be a function of crypto market moves more than software performance. Investors and analysts will be watching both conventional GAAP results and the new proprietary metrics management has rolled out to see how the investment case for the company is being reframed.