Stifel has trimmed its price target on Microsoft to $400, warning investors that consensus expectations for fiscal 2027 gross margins appear overly optimistic in light of Azure's rapid expansion and rising capital spending that is compressing cloud profitability.
In a research note, analyst Brad Reback projects fiscal 2027 gross margins shrinking by roughly 450 basis points year-over-year to near 63%, a figure he says sits more than 300 basis points below the Street consensus of 66.5%.
Stifel ran a stress scenario in which Azure gross margins hold steady at fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 levels of approximately 47.5%. Even under that assumption, which the firm calls unlikely because of continued capex growth, Stifel still expects fiscal 2027 gross margins to decline by about 300 basis points year-over-year.
The bank points to a revenue mix shift toward Azure as the primary driver of the expected deterioration. Azure is described as growing about three times faster than the remainder of Microsoft’s business, and Stifel anticipates ongoing Azure gross margin compression of 100 to 150 basis points quarter-over-quarter through fiscal 2027.
Stifel also highlights Microsoft’s guidance on operating expenses, noting the company has planned mid-to-upper single-digit operating expense growth due to continued research and development investments. That pace of expense growth limits the potential offset that cost efficiencies might provide, particularly when compared with peers that have guided to lower absolute operating expenses. The note contrasts Microsoft’s approach with Oracle, which guided absolute dollar operating expenses lower year-over-year.
On earnings, Stifel cautions that Street fiscal 2027 EPS estimates of about $19.45 could be roughly $1.00 too high. The firm adds that rising finance lease obligations are likely to exert additional pressure on EPS growth, even as management expects to maintain double-digit operating income growth.
Implications
Stifel’s analysis centers on mix and cost dynamics within Microsoft’s cloud business, underscoring how a higher share of faster-growing, lower-margin Azure revenue and increased capital spending can compress overall company gross margins and weigh on consensus profit estimates.