Sasol Ltd. has released guidance for its fiscal 2026 results that sets headline earnings per share in a range of R36 to R40. At the midpoint this equates to a modest year-on-year increase of between 2% and 14% over the prior period, but the midpoint sits marginally below market expectations.
Bloomberg consensus and Visible Alpha consensus at the midpoint are R39.53 and R39.50 per share respectively, meaning Sasol's central EPS projection falls short of both benchmarks by a small margin. The company’s stock reacted in South African trading, declining roughly 2.5% on the day.
In its commentary, Sasol said headline earnings benefited from stronger sales volumes coupled with improved margins in its oil and refining operations. Those operational tailwinds were, however, partly offset by currency strength - specifically a firmer South African rand against the U.S. dollar - which acted as a headwind to reported earnings.
Sasol also disclosed an R1.1 billion unrealised loss linked to translation and derivatives, a factor that likely had a material negative effect on the second half of fiscal 2026. By contrast, the company had recorded an R2.9 billion unrealised gain in the first half of the fiscal year.
On an adjusted EBITDA basis, Sasol guided to a range of R58 billion to R62 billion for fiscal 2026. That range represents a year-on-year improvement of approximately 12% to 20% and stands above several widely followed estimates at the midpoint. Bloomberg consensus sits at R58.07 billion, Visible Alpha consensus at R57.25 billion and a separate analyst estimate at R57.82 billion, all of which are below Sasol's midpoint forecast.
Analysts following the company cautioned that market participants may assign less weight to the adjusted EBITDA figure than in earlier periods. That caution reflects a series of historical adjustments to the metric, including changes relating to rehabilitation provisions recorded in the first half of fiscal 2026, which can alter comparability across reporting periods.
Overall, Sasol’s guidance combines stronger operational performance in volumes and refining margins with offsetting effects from currency moves and unrealised financial items, while the adjusted EBITDA outlook outperforms consensus despite caveats about metric comparability.