Market move and the headline figures
Shares of SanDisk (SNDK) opened the session with a steep pre-market decline - down about 10% to near $1,215 - despite an underlying quarterly performance that, on the numbers, was strong. The company posted Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% from the year-ago quarter, and issued gross margin guidance of 83-85%, which came in ahead of consensus estimates.
Snapshot
- Pre-market: $1,215.39 (-10.0%)
- 52-week range: $40.53 - $2,354.39
- Year-to-date: +452.69%
- Off 52-week high: ~48%
- Market capitalization: $200 billion
What drove the selloff
The immediate trigger was guidance for the first quarter: revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of about $10.55 billion, versus a Street consensus of $10.62 billion. That represents an approximate shortfall of $70 million against a roughly $10.5 billion guide - less than a 1% miss on a very high baseline. Reported EPS guidance of $44.00 to $46.00 was in line with consensus.
Fundamentals that remain notable
- Data-center revenue doubled Q4-over-Q3 and rose 400% in 2026 versus 2025.
- Gross margin guidance of 83-85% is materially above consensus and strong for a hardware-focused business.
- NBM agreements now cover more than 50% of FY27 bits and roughly two-thirds of FY28 bits, providing multi-year revenue visibility.
- Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $2,200 target, implying about 81% upside from the pre-market level.
- Hyperscaler capital expenditure plans cited in the release point to memory-focused AI infrastructure spending - specifically Amazon +$20 billion and Google +$15 billion.
Counterarguments and market concerns
SanDisk was already under pressure before the print - the stock had slid roughly 47% from its June high of $2,354 prior to the earnings release. Today's drop builds on that retracement. Sell-side caution has also increased: Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $1,400 and warned of "slowing upside revisions" and a guided sequential gross margin decline. RBC Capital Markets flagged margins near cycle peaks and moderating NAND price growth, two factors that fueled the 2026 rally.
Broader weakness in AI and memory-related names amplified the move: Samsung fell about 6.3%, SK Hynix by about 10.4%, and AMD's weakness pulled the sector lower.
Technical view
- Intraday (5-minute to 1-hour): Strong sell - momentum appears in freefall.
- Daily: Neutral - RSI at 45.5, not yet in oversold territory.
- Weekly: Sell - MACD remains positive but StochRSI near 7.3 is oversold.
- Monthly: Strong buy - the longer-term trend remains intact.
Weekly pivot support is near $988, with weekly S1 at $987. The pre-market level of about $1,215 remains well above those supports, indicating there could be further downside before reaching a structural floor.
Analyst price targets illustrate the divergence in expectations
| Analyst | Rating | Price target | Upside from ~$1,215 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Outperform | $2,800+ | +130% |
| Susquehanna | Positive | $3,050+ | +151% |
| Lynx Equity | Buy | $2,450 | +102% |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $2,200 | +81% |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | $1,400 | +15% |
Notably, at roughly $1,215 pre-market, the stock trades below even Wells Fargo's more cautious target.
Upcoming catalyst and downside risks
Evercore has pointed to an analyst day as the next potential catalyst that could reframe expectations. The more immediate risk is that momentum-driven selling in a volatile AI sentiment environment can push price action beyond what fundamentals alone might justify before a stable floor forms.
Bottom line
SanDisk's quarter delivered robust revenue and margin signals, including strong data-center growth and significant contract coverage for upcoming years. The market punished the stock primarily for failing to exceed an already-elevated revenue consensus by a narrow amount, and the move was intensified by sector-wide weakness in AI/memory names. For investors, the question is whether the selloff creates an entry opportunity below even some analysts' downside targets, or whether momentum pressures can drive the share price further from fundamentals before stabilization.