Salmar (OSE:SALM) shares slid 3.5% on Monday after two major analysts lowered their price targets for the Norwegian salmon farming company.
SEB reduced its target to NOK 610 from NOK 635, while Barclays trimmed its target to NOK 545 from NOK 560. The analyst downgrades came despite Salmar reporting first-quarter EBIT that was slightly above consensus.
Barclays noted that Salmar’s first-quarter harvest volume of 60.3kt outpaced expectations. The bank said that strong underlying performance in Norwegian farming was offset by ongoing weakness in the downstream value chain and by weaker results from Icelandic Salmon operations.
Separately, Salmar increased its fiscal 2026 volume guidance by 12kt to approximately 308kt, excluding Scottish sea farms. That guidance is driven by Norwegian biological performance, where Salmar expects around 285kt. Icelandic volumes are left at 21kt and Salmar Ocean at 5kt. The company said the revised guidance equates to roughly 8% growth versus fiscal 2025, with most of the additional volume already pushed into the first quarter.
On costs, Salmar indicated that second-quarter expenses should be broadly stable, with a clearer improvement anticipated in the second half of the year. The company attributed weaker cost performance in the first quarter to temporary operational disruptions, including the InnovaMar processing upgrade, a number of challenged sites in Central Norway, and seasonal mix effects.
Contracted sales were highlighted as a relative strength. Salmar reported an elevated contract share of 37% for the quarter and a projected 33% contract share for fiscal 2026, levels the company noted are well ahead of peers Mowi and Leroy.
Reflecting the supply backdrop and lower price conditions evident in the first quarter, Barclays reduced its pricing assumption for fiscal 2026 to NOK 77/kg from NOK 80/kg. On that basis, the firm now forecasts fiscal 2026 EBIT of NOK 7,288 million.
Contextual summary
- Analyst target adjustments from SEB and Barclays prompted a 3.5% share price decline despite slightly stronger-than-expected Q1 EBIT.
- Operational dynamics show stronger-than-expected harvest volumes in Norway, higher contract coverage, but persistent weakness downstream and in Icelandic operations.
- Management increased fiscal 2026 volume guidance to about 308kt and outlined expectations for cost stability in Q2 with improvement in H2.
Data points in focus
- Q1 harvest volume: 60.3kt.
- Fiscal 2026 volume guidance: ~308kt (Norway ~285kt, Iceland 21kt, Salmar Ocean 5kt).
- Contract share: 37% for the quarter, 33% for fiscal 2026.
- Barclays fiscal 2026 pricing assumption: NOK 77/kg (previously NOK 80/kg).
- Barclays fiscal 2026 EBIT estimate: NOK 7,288 million.