Shares of SAAB AB series B rallied 5.1% today following a dual upgrade from Morgan Stanley, which moved the stock from Underweight to Overweight and increased its 12-month price target to SEK 700 from SEK 540. The bank said its longer-term earnings view for Saab is materially higher than the broader analyst community currently models.
Morgan Stanley highlighted that its 2030 EPS forecast for Saab sits at approximately 30% above Bloomberg consensus, a central justification for the more bullish stance. The firm cited the company's accelerating order intake as a primary driver behind its revision.
Recent contract wins cited by Morgan Stanley include a deal with the Polish State Treasury Armaments Agency for three A26-type submarines with a value near SEK 47 billion, and a separate SEK 24.6 billion agreement with Sweden's Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) to supply 16 Gripen E fighter aircraft destined for Ukraine. Morgan Stanley flagged both agreements as evidence of robust order momentum supporting a stronger revenue run-rate.
Investors may also be positioning ahead of Saab's upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for July 17. The company reported organic sales growth of roughly 24% in Q1 2026, and market participants appear to be anticipating another quarter of solid top-line performance.
Concurrent with the upgrade, Morgan Stanley downgraded Kongsberg Gruppen to Underweight, a sector-level adjustment that the bank acknowledged and which may have contributed to capital rotating toward Saab within the European defense complex. On the day, the Stockholm exchange recovered from an early dip and closed with Saab as a standout performer on the OMXS30. U.S. equity indices also traded higher, providing a constructive global risk environment that coincided with the rally.
At the time of writing the stock was trading at SEK 617.4, well below its 52-week high of SEK 748.8. Market commentary noted that the share price still sits under the prior peak, implying that investors see potential upside if forthcoming results validate the stronger earnings trajectory outlined by Morgan Stanley.
Together, the analyst re-rating, an elevated order backlog and an environment of increased European defense procurement combined to produce today's sharp move higher in the shares. Market participants will be watching the July earnings release closely to see whether reported results align with the upgraded outlook.