Global LNG exports declined by 4% sequentially in the first quarter of 2026, falling to 115 million tonnes, according to RBC Capital Markets. The drop was driven principally by a complete shutdown at Qatar LNG that began on March 4, which compressed the terminal’s shipments significantly for the month.
RBC’s analysis highlights the operational and pricing consequences of that outage. The Qatar disruption reduced the terminal’s exports by 26% sequentially and by 33% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Among the integrated oil majors, ExxonMobil bore the greatest exposure to that specific hit because of Qatar’s relatively large role in its LNG portfolio.
When Qatar’s volumes are set aside, global LNG shipments were roughly unchanged quarter-on-quarter, RBC notes. That stability reflected new liquefaction capacity entering service during the period: LNG Canada’s second train continued its ramp-up, while Congo LNG Phase 2 and Golden Pass reached start-up during the quarter, partially offsetting the Qatar-induced shortfall.
But RBC argues the more consequential development for majors is price dynamics. Since the onset of the conflict in Iran, European TTF gas prices have climbed by approximately 50%, while the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark has been largely stable. That divergence pushed export margins into Europe and Asia sharply higher, creating a widening arbitrage for cargos originating from the U.S.
"For those with large U.S. LNG positions (Equity & Offtake), such as TTE, SHELL and BP, we expect them to feel the benefits of wider export margins into Europe and Asia partly in 1Q26 but more significantly in the rest of the year," RBC analysts led by Biraj Borkhataria wrote in their note.
RBC’s calculations indicate Shell is likely to report LNG volumes toward the upper end of its first-quarter guidance range of 7.4 to 8.0 million tonnes, with a figure slightly exceeding the prior quarter’s 7.8 million tonnes. The ramp-up at LNG Canada is singled out as timely given Asian buyers seeking alternate sources for imports. However, RBC cautions that some of Shell’s upside could be mitigated by the Pearl GTL outage, which the analysts describe as one of Shell’s most profitable assets.
TotalEnergies is also expected to follow a similar trajectory, with RBC projecting slightly higher volumes quarter-on-quarter and a corresponding uplift in realized export economics.
Operationally, the note points out that utilization rates in March rose at four of the five super-majors; ExxonMobil was the sole exception. That pattern suggests the other majors are positioned to take advantage of the widening arbitrage if current pricing persists.
RBC also flags timing considerations. The analysts said they anticipate more pronounced market activity on the oil trading front during the current quarter, and they expect the bulk of the earnings upside from wider regional LNG spreads to feed through company results beginning in the second quarter of 2026.
Contextual takeaway: Operational outages and new liquefaction capacity combined to shape Q1 LNG flows, but the larger commercial story is where European prices have outpaced U.S. benchmarks since the Iran conflict. That divergence enhances margins for U.S.-sourced cargos and should favor integrated majors with sizable U.S. LNG exposure, albeit with timing and offsetting factors to consider.