RBC Capital Markets released fresh estimates of food-retail comparable sales using Circana scanner data and its proprietary models, finding a split picture among major U.S. grocers.
The bank’s model indicates Kroger’s first-quarter identical sales are tracking close to flat. RBC notes its proprietary tool has a 95% correlation to Kroger’s reported sales growth. In regions covered by the scanner data, food-channel dollar sales in Kroger areas fell 0.9%, driven by a 1.9% decline in volume and partially offset by a 1.1% increase in prices. RBC also estimates a 130 basis-point headwind tied to the Inflation Reduction Act for Kroger’s results. The firm adds that transaction data points to somewhat stronger performance than scanner figures alone would suggest. Kroger management has previously indicated it expects first-quarter identical sales near the low end of its full-year guidance range of 1% to 2%.
Albertsons is projected to see a larger deterioration in comparable sales. RBC’s analysis points to a 1.4% decline in Albertsons’ first-quarter identical sales and the bank reports a 98% correlation between its tool and core grocery sales growth for the chain. In Albertsons regions, food-channel dollar sales dropped 1.2%, with volume down 2.3% and prices up 1.2%. Separately, RBC estimates pharmacy sales grew 2% during the quarter. The bank’s projection for Albertsons sits below the retailer’s guidance range of flat to 1% growth.
For Walmart U.S., RBC projects second-quarter comparable-sales growth of 4.0% overall, with grocery comparable sales also rising 4.0%. The bank expects food inflation of 0.8% in the quarter. In scanner regions corresponding to Walmart, food-channel dollar sales declined 0.8%, as volume fell 2.2% and prices rose 1.4%. RBC assumes a modest slowdown in general merchandise comparable sales to 1.5% and anticipates health and wellness to expand by 5.0%.
RBC additionally highlights that Walmart has not yet materially passed fuel-related costs through to consumers. The bank says price increases appear likely if fuel costs remain elevated, signaling a potential input-cost pressure that could affect grocery margins or customer outlays if enacted.
Methodology note: RBC’s projections rely on Circana scanner-region food-channel dollar-sales measures combined with proprietary correlation models. The bank reports high historical correlations between its tools and reported comparable-sales outcomes for the chains covered.
Overall, the bank’s estimates point to diverging trajectories among large grocers: Kroger around flat, Albertsons facing declines relative to guidance, and Walmart showing stronger comparable growth in the quarter covered.