Stock Markets July 29, 2026 03:20 AM

Paragon Banking Group maintains guidance as margin prospects improve

Modest loan expansion and slower deposit outflows support steady trading; CET1 strengthened after SFS disposal

By Nina Shah
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Paragon Banking Group upheld the guidance set at its interim results in a third-quarter trading update, reporting modest year-on-year loan growth, smaller deposit outflows compared with the prior quarter, and an improved near-term net interest margin outlook. The bank has expanded teams to target agricultural clients and bridging finance, and its pro-forma CET1 ratio benefited from a recent disposal.

Paragon Banking Group maintains guidance as margin prospects improve
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Key Points

  • Paragon maintained all guidance from its interim results while suggesting second-half NIM could outperform previous expectations - impacts banking sector margin outlook.
  • Loan book growth was modest at 3.0% year-on-year (about 0.5% quarter-on-quarter), and two new teams were hired to expand agricultural lending and bridging loans - impacts lending and real estate finance sectors.
  • Deposit outflows slowed to roughly - a smaller quarterly reduction than the - easing funding pressure and touching on retail funding trends.

Paragon Banking Group confirmed all guidance provided at its interim results in a trading statement for the third quarter, while flagging that near-term net interest margin (NIM) performance could be stronger than previously expected.

Loan growth for the quarter ending June 2026 was modest, with year-on-year expansion of 3.0% - a rate that equates to roughly 0.5% growth over the quarter. Activity slowed in April and May amid rising interest rates and a drop in confidence following the onset of hostilities in the Middle East, but the bank reported signs of a pick-up in June.

To broaden its lending franchise, Paragon has hired two teams focused on agricultural lending and on building out bridging loan capability. Management estimates these hires could lift loan growth by about one percentage point over the coming two years.

Deposit balances fell by approximately \u00a3200 million, or around 1%, in the third quarter - a slower pace of outflow compared with the \u00a3600 million to \u00a3700 million reported in the second quarter.

Throughout the period the bank said it preserved a disciplined approach to retail pricing and continued to unwind its reliance on Bank of England repo facilities.

On margins, Paragon indicated that second-half NIM may be better than the levels implied at the time of the interim results. The existing full-year guide of approximately 300 basis points had implied a fall from 308 basis points in the first half of 2026 to as low as 292 basis points in the second half.

Asset quality metrics showed modest improvement. Arrears on the buy-to-let portfolio eased by 10 basis points to 40 basis points during the quarter. Impairment in development finance also continued to trend lower.

Capitalisation on a pro-forma basis was reported at 13.6% to 13.7% for the CET1 ratio at quarter-end, a figure that includes an uplift of about 50 basis points stemming from the SFS disposal completed in July 2026.


Context for financial stakeholders

The update preserves the bank's near-term targets while offering signs that underlying margin dynamics and capital metrics are moving in a constructive direction.

Risks

  • Reduced confidence following the start of hostilities in the Middle East weighed on lending momentum in April and May - this poses uncertainty for near-term loan growth and affects the banking and lending sectors.
  • Deposit balances continue to decline, albeit at a slower rate; ongoing outflows could influence funding mix and reliance on central bank facilities - relevant to banking sector liquidity and funding risk.
  • NIM guidance improvement is conditional and the second-half outcome may still vary from prior assumptions - margin volatility affects interest income and bank profitability.

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