Options traders are pricing in an approximately 4.8% move for Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) when the company issues its next quarterly report on July 21 prior to market open, based on options data compiled by Bloomberg.
That implied move — derived from the level of option premiums ahead of the announcement — sets a market expectation for the size of the stock's reaction. Historical patterns show the actual price change around earnings has frequently exceeded the options-implied figure.
Across the last eight earnings releases, Northrop Grumman's share price moved by more than the amount suggested by options in six instances. The recent history of actual moves compared with the options-implied moves is as follows:
- April: the stock fell 10.3% while options indicated a potential 4.9% move.
- January: shares rose 1.8% versus an implied 4.0% move.
- October 2025: the stock dropped 3.2% compared with an implied move of 1.9%.
- July 2025: shares climbed 8.2% while options suggested a 4.8% move.
- April 2025: the stock fell 13.4% when the implied move was 2.8%.
- January 2025: shares declined 3.8% against an implied move of 1.0%.
- October 2024: the stock dropped 1.5% with an implied move of 1.6%.
- July 2024: shares rose 6.9% compared to an implied move of 3.5%.
The sequence above illustrates that the market's options-implied expectations have at times underestimated the magnitude of moves when results are released. The most recent implied figure for the upcoming report stands at 4.8% and is tied to the July 21 pre-market release schedule cited in the options data.
This information is narrowly focused on the options-implied move and the stock's historical reactions around earnings. It does not assert causes for the past moves beyond the comparisons of actual percentage changes and the corresponding implied moves derived from options pricing.
What to watch
Investors and traders looking at Northrop Grumman ahead of the July 21 release may consider that options markets have set an implied expectation of a 4.8% move, while recent history shows the company’s announced results have often produced larger price swings than those implied levels.