Options markets are pricing in a roughly 12% move for Snowflake Inc. when the company releases its quarterly results on Sept. 2 after the market close, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
That implied move comes from options traders' pricing of volatility around earnings dates. It is a forward-looking measure of how far market participants expect the share price might move in response to the report.
Bloomberg’s dataset shows a mixed record for how closely options-implied moves have matched actual post-earnings price action for Snowflake. In half of the most recent eight earnings events, the stock’s actual one-day move following the release was larger than the move implied by options.
The eight most recent comparisons in Bloomberg’s record are as follows:
- May 27 - Options traders anticipated a 12.2% move, but the stock rose 41.1%.
- Feb. 25 - An 11% implied move preceded a 2.3% decline in the share price.
- Dec. 3, 2025 - The stock fell 6.2% against a 9.9% implied move.
- Aug. 27, 2025 - The stock climbed 25.1% compared to an 11.3% implied move.
- May 21, 2025 - Shares gained 12.2% versus a 10.5% implied move.
- Feb. 26, 2025 - The stock dropped 9.9% against a 12.2% implied move.
- Nov. 20, 2024 - Shares jumped 36.6% compared to a 12% implied move.
- Aug. 21, 2024 - The stock fell 9.3% against an 11.6% implied move.
Those historical results illustrate that options-implied moves are not perfect predictors of actual market reactions. In a number of recent reporting periods, the stock’s real-world price change outpaced the options market’s expectation by a wide margin. At other times, the actual move was smaller than—or opposite in direction to—what had been implied by option pricing.
For market participants and observers, the implied 12% figure for the Sept. 2 report provides a gauge of expected volatility but not a certainty about direction or magnitude. Traders who use options to position around earnings will typically weigh that implied volatility against their own views of the company’s results and guidance, while equity investors may consider the historical variance between implied and realized moves when assessing risk.
Given the track record shown in Bloomberg’s comparisons, options-based expectations should be treated as one input among several rather than a definitive forecast of post-earnings price movement.