Needham published the 33rd edition of its Semicap Tracker on Friday, adding July figures for semiconductor equipment imports into Korea, Taiwan and China, together with updated global semiconductor sales through June and memory spot-price data through August 21.
The firm reported an acceleration in month-over-month growth for global semiconductor sales in June, with the 12-month moving average reaching 7.49% - the highest single-month reading since 1984. Needham attributes the current upswing to memory, noting parallels to the 1984 upcycle in which memory was similarly the primary driver.
On the silicon front, Needham said the Silicon MSI rose 7% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter of 2026. All foundries tracked by the firm logged quarter-over-quarter growth in wafer shipments. The Silicon MSI now sits approximately 4% below its third quarter 2022 peak, and Needham observed that, if current trends persist, that prior high could be overtaken in the second half of 2026.
Memory market dynamics remain a focal point. DDR5 DRAM spot prices climbed to new record highs on an almost daily basis through August, according to the tracker. NAND spot prices also strengthened after rebounding from the start of the month. Needham suggested that the recovery in NAND pricing may have helped Lam Research in its recent outperformance against Applied Materials and KLA Corporation.
On equipment flows, the aggregate three-month moving average of wafer fabrication equipment imports into Korea, Taiwan and China was up 5% in July compared with June. Regionally, Needham reported a 1% decline in Korea imports, a 1% increase in Taiwan imports and a 14% jump in China imports month-over-month. Year-to-date, combined WFE imports into these three markets are up 14% versus 2025.
In its coverage calls, Needham maintained Buy ratings on Cohu, Kulicke and Soffa, and BE Semiconductor Industries, citing tightening supply conditions for mainstream semiconductors. The firm also kept a Buy rating on Applied Materials and a Hold rating on Axcelis Technologies.
Separately, the tracker has been updated to include TSMC capital-expenditure data following a reduction in the company's disclosure on quarterly Board of Directors capital appropriations. Needham incorporated TSMC CapEx into the tracker to account for that change in corporate reporting.
Market context
- The data set combines import flows, corporate CapEx disclosure adjustments, and spot memory pricing to provide a cross-section view of manufacturing activity and pricing dynamics in the semiconductor supply chain.
- Evidence of accelerating sales and rising equipment imports points to strengthening end-market demand, with memory prices a notable amplifier of recent industry performance.