Overview
Morgan Stanley identified a modest uptick in U.S. retail alcohol sales in the four weeks ended July 25. The research note highlighted that spirits benefited from activity tied to the latter portion of the FIFA Club World Cup, while beer volumes stayed subdued. The broker cautioned that tournament-driven consumption was likely concentrated in bars and restaurants - the on-premise channel - rather than in the off-trade outlets captured by NielsenIQ's retail tracking.
Company-by-company trends
Diageo - Morgan Stanley reported that Diageo's U.S. spirits sales fell 9.5% year over year in the latest four-week window, a marginal underperformance relative to its 12-week trend, which showed a 9.3% decline. When beer is included, Diageo's total U.S. sales declined 7.5%, broadly in line with recent patterns. The broker noted the company continued to lose market share on both value and volume measures, even as Diageo's beer business gained modest volume share despite an overall drop in sales.
Pernod Ricard - The broker said Pernod Ricard's U.S. spirits sales declined 7.0% in the latest four weeks, an improvement versus the 12-week fall of 7.4%. Morgan Stanley observed that volume trends improved compared with recent periods, although Pernod Ricard still surrendered a modest amount of market share.
Campari - Among the European spirit names tracked, Campari posted one of the most notable improvements. U.S. sales were down 1.4% year over year in the latest four-week period, versus a 4.2% decline across the prior 12 weeks. Volume trends improved, and market share losses were limited during the most recent four-week span.
Rémy Cointreau - Morgan Stanley reported Rémy Cointreau's U.S. sales fell 3.4% year over year in the latest four weeks, an improvement from a 4.3% decline over the prior 12 weeks. The note said volume trends strengthened and that the company broadly maintained its volume market share.
Moët Hennessy - Moët Hennessy's U.S. sales declined 2.1% in the latest four weeks, compared with a 0.6% decline over the previous 12 weeks. Morgan Stanley interpreted that as weaker momentum, with volume growth slowing and the company ceding a small amount of market share during the period.
Anheuser-Busch InBev - For Anheuser-Busch InBev, U.S. beer sales fell 3.2% year over year in the latest four weeks, an improvement from a 4.2% decline over the prior 12 weeks. Including ready-to-drink (RTD) spirits, the combined sales decline was 1.0%. The broker noted the brewer gained both value and volume market share in the U.S. beer market during the measurement period.
Heineken - Heineken's U.S. beer sales declined 7.6% year over year in the latest four weeks, an improvement from the 12-week decline of 8.6%. Despite the better short-term sales trend, Morgan Stanley reported the brewer continued to lose modest market share in the U.S. beer market.
Implications and context
The broker's note paints a picture of a sector where spirits are showing relative resilience and a degree of recovery in recent weeks, while beer remains more challenged. Several large spirit houses and brewers posted year-over-year declines in the latest four-week snapshot, but many recorded smaller drops compared with their 12-week trends, indicating some stabilization. Market-share movements varied by company: a few firms gained modest share in certain segments even as aggregate sales fell, while others ceded share amid slower volume trends.
Data caveat - Morgan Stanley emphasized that event-driven demand linked to the latter stages of the FIFA Club World Cup likely skewed toward the on-premise channel, such as bars and restaurants, and therefore may not be fully reflected in the off-trade retail sales measured by NielsenIQ.
Conclusion
Morgan Stanley's latest read of NielsenIQ-tracked U.S. retail sales through July 25 shows a modest improvement in spirits demand and a mixed performance among major drinks companies. While several names recorded narrower declines versus their 12-week trends, the overall picture remains one of soft year-over-year comparison across much of the alcohol retail market, with individual companies showing divergent results on market share and volume trends.