Morgan Stanley's review of July auto rate filings shows a modest overall reduction in pricing for personal auto coverage. Aggregated filings led to a 0.2% decline in average rates for the month, a change that the firm estimates touches about $61 billion of auto premium volume within the property and casualty industry.
The picture at individual companies was mixed. Progressive Corporation registered a 1.3% premium-weighted decrease in July, a move that Morgan Stanley says affects approximately $12.7 billion of the insurer's auto premiums. The bank also expects Progressive to file further negative rate changes for the remainder of the year as management concentrates on maximizing personal auto growth and customer retention.
By contrast, Allstate Corporation reported a 0.9% rate increase in July, impacting roughly $4.6 billion in auto premiums. Despite the July increase, Morgan Stanley projects that Allstate will continue to submit negative auto rate filings in 2026 as it seeks to write additional new auto business in most states and bolster retention through its Transformative Growth initiative and the rollout of Allstate-branded Affordable, Simple, Connected products.
Hartford Financial Services Group posted a 0.3% rate increase in July, affecting about $70 million in auto premiums. Morgan Stanley notes that Hartford has reached target profitability margins for its Personal Insurance segment and expects further moderation of rates as the company expands its Prevail platform.
Travelers Companies recorded a 1.1% rate increase in July, impacting $1.2 billion in auto premiums. Morgan Stanley anticipates a moderation in personal auto pricing from Travelers as the insurer deploys capacity to support bundled auto and homeowners business.
The analysis underscores Morgan Stanley's broader view that personal auto pricing will remain negative through 2026, driven by carriers prioritizing growth in new business and retention efforts amid intense competitive pressures in the market.
Company performance snippets included in the filings analysis:
- Progressive - 1.3% premium-weighted rate decrease in July, affecting $12.7 billion of auto premiums.
- Allstate - 0.9% rate increase in July, affecting approximately $4.6 billion of auto premiums.
- Hartford - 0.3% rate increase in July, affecting roughly $70 million of auto premiums.
- Travelers - 1.1% rate increase in July, affecting about $1.2 billion of auto premiums.
These company-level filings form the basis for Morgan Stanley's expectation that carriers will continue to prioritize growth and retention rather than pushing broadly higher pricing, which the firm says will keep aggregate personal auto pricing in negative territory through 2026.