Mizuho has identified a set of high-conviction ideas in the U.S. energy sector, singling out companies that the firm views as offering differentiated opportunities or clear near-term catalysts. The analysis is derived from a bottom-up comparison of Mizuho’s internal ratings and price targets versus Bloomberg consensus across 27 stocks in seven industry sectors.
Devon Energy
At the top of Mizuho’s list sits Devon Energy, following its May 7 merger with Coterra that created one of the largest shale operators in the United States. The combined company’s production profile is substantial: in aggregate it produces over 0.5 million barrels per day of oil, in addition to more than 4.5 billion cubic feet per day of dry gas and roughly 350 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day of natural gas liquids.
Mizuho notes a valuation gap versus similarly sized peers, with Devon trading about 0.5 times cheaper on 2027-2028 EV/EBITDA metrics and projected to generate 3-5% more free cash flow relative to enterprise value on the bank’s estimates. The firm highlights multiple company-specific opportunities: management expects upwards of $1 billion in merger synergies, international LNG-linked gas sales slated to begin in 2027, and a roughly $1.5 billion stake in geothermal company Fervo.
Investors are awaiting additional detail from management, including a proforma budget due in mid-June and commentary on potential asset dispositions. Media reports have indicated that StonePeak offered approximately $8 billion for Marcellus assets, a development the market is watching for clues about Devon’s asset strategy.
Operational and financial performance has supported the bullish stance. Devon reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.57 per share and revenue of $7.42 billion, both ahead of analyst expectations. The company also increased its quarterly dividend by 33% to $0.32 per share.
Energy Transfer
Mizuho selected Energy Transfer as its top midstream pick, pointing to the company’s strategic positioning to serve rising power needs tied to AI data centers and increased U.S. LNG activity. The bank emphasizes Energy Transfer’s footprint and connectivity to these themes, arguing the market may be underappreciating that exposure.
Management has pursued growth opportunities selectively while preserving flexibility on the balance sheet. Improved leverage, in Mizuho’s view, could allow the company to expand capital returns beyond the current roughly 3% distribution growth rate if conditions permit. However, the firm acknowledges investor hesitation tied to Energy Transfer’s master limited partnership structure.
Recent results reinforced the outlook: Energy Transfer reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of about $5.1 billion, an increase of roughly 31% from the prior year, and subsequently raised its full-year guidance.
MasTec
Mizuho highlights MasTec as a leading engineering, procurement and construction contractor with exposure across renewables, power delivery, telecommunications and underground infrastructure. The company closed its acquisition of Superior Group at an implied multiple of approximately 6.9 times 2026 estimated EBITDA, bringing added data-center exposure given that the acquired business is reported to be roughly 90% data center focused by sales.
MasTec reported record backlog of $21.4 billion and a book-to-bill ratio of about 1.2 times. The company’s second-quarter 2026 revenue of $4.375 billion exceeded expectations, although it provided weaker guidance for its communications segment. Following that update, both Truist and KeyBanc reduced their price targets on MasTec shares.
Ameren Corp.
Mizuho also points to Ameren as a way to access power demand tied to data centers. Ameren has converted 2.8 gigawatts of construction agreements into signed energy service agreements in Missouri, and management is targeting a triennial integrated resource plan update in September 2026. The company has identified an additional 4 gigawatts of projects that could be converted.
Ameren’s second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.13 per share beat consensus, and Mizuho subsequently raised its price target on the utility, citing demand from data centers as a supporting driver.
Context and implications
Mizuho’s selections stretch across exploration and production, midstream, EPC contractors and regulated utilities, reflecting how data-center demand and LNG developments are shaping opportunity sets across different parts of the energy value chain. The bank’s bottom-up approach emphasizes valuation gaps, near-term catalysts and asset-level optionality as decision points for investors considering names in the sector.