Macquarie has adjusted down its earnings expectations for Macau's casino sector following a softer-than-anticipated GGR performance in the second quarter of 2026. The investment bank reduced its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA forecasts for the sector by 9.2% and trimmed its full-year GGR projection for 2026.
The firm now models industry GGR for 2026 at MOP256 billion, which implies 3.4% growth from the prior year. That replaces Macquarie's earlier forecast of MOP262 billion and a 6% year-over-year increase. The bank's current view for the third quarter is that GGR will be flat compared with the same period last year.
For the second quarter specifically, Macquarie expects aggregate adjusted EBITDA for Macau's operators to fall 4.6% year-over-year, an outcome the bank ties to the flat GGR trend observed during the quarter.
Market share movements were uneven across operators in the quarter. Wynn recorded the largest gain, increasing its market share by 1.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 2.0 percentage points year-over-year. Sands China shed 2.5 percentage points of share on a quarter-over-quarter basis, though it expanded its year-over-year share by 1.0 percentage point. SJM posted a 0.5 percentage point improvement versus the prior quarter but shows a 2.0 percentage point contraction compared with the same period last year, which Macquarie attributes to losses related to satellite casinos. Galaxy's market share held steady at 20.5%, unchanged both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.
Macquarie highlights a continued near-term drag from the World Cup diversion effect on July results. Month-to-date figures show average daily revenue down 13% year-over-year, and Macquarie projects GGR for the month to decline in a 7-11% range. Looking ahead to September, the bank expects GGR to record high-teens growth, noting that last year's typhoon disruption creates a lower comparison base for that month.
The bank also outlines relative dividend yields across major operators. Wynn Macau is shown as offering the highest dividend yield at about 9%, while Sands China yields roughly 7.5%. Galaxy and MGM China are cited with yields near 5.4% and 5.9%, respectively.
Valuation metrics for the sector are described as trading in the 7-9 times earnings range, which Macquarie characterizes as close to historical trough levels. Given the earnings and revenue adjustments, the bank recommends that investors watch second-quarter results closely for potential re-entry opportunities.