Macquarie's latest regional analysis points to a distinct market dynamic across Southeast Asia in July 2026, when an AI-driven momentum unwind provided a performance tailwind for ASEAN indices. The firm highlights that the month's moves were driven more by rotation within the region than by a decisive favoring of growth or value names.
Momentum weakness in ASEAN tracked a wider selloff across Asia, yet risk appetite staged a recovery later in the period. Earnings revision trends were uneven: Indonesia and Malaysia experienced weakening revisions, while the Philippines showed improvement. Thailand emerged with the strongest market positioning in the region, and Singapore continued to strengthen its standing.
Sector patterns were notable. Across ASEAN, consumer sectors led the charge in earnings revision momentum, while energy lagged behind. These sectoral differences fed into country-level outcomes as investors rotated portfolios within the region.
In Singapore, returns were driven primarily by multiple expansion. The market saw outperformance from lower-risk names as investors exercised caution amid a shift from growth to value and the broader unwind of momentum. Macquarie attributed Singapore's gains to a mix of technical and fundamental support.
Malaysia presented a less clear factor picture. Factor leadership was ambiguous while earnings revisions softened. Nevertheless, returns in Malaysia were underpinned by flows into ASEAN's defensive laggards, suggesting a defensive reallocation supported performance despite weaker revision trends.
Thailand's performance was more fundamentally driven, supported by analyst sentiment. The country posted the strongest earnings revision momentum in ASEAN, and positive returns were primarily the result of earnings upgrades. Those gains offset modest compression in multiples as investors shifted toward more defensive markets.
In Indonesia, renewed risk appetite translated into multiple expansion through positioning dynamics, even as earnings revisions remained weak. The divergence between technical-driven multiple expansion and lacklustre revision trends was a notable feature of the Indonesian market.
Philippine investors showed a preference for liquid companies with stable, visible earnings. Analyst-driven winners in the Philippines lagged despite a broader recovery in earnings revisions, indicating selective investor focus on balance-sheet visibility and liquidity.
Overall, Macquarie's read of July 2026 in ASEAN is of a market shaped by intra-regional rotation, mixed revision momentum across countries, and sectoral dispersion with consumer strength and energy weakness.