Stock Markets July 29, 2026 03:05 AM

Kerry posts stronger-than-expected volume gains in first half, EBITDA in line with forecasts

Q2 volumes outperformed estimates while free cash flow lagged due to working-capital and timing-driven capex movements

By Sofia Navarro
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Kerry reported second-quarter volume growth above analyst expectations and delivered first-half EBITDA that matched consensus, while margins expanded. The company kept its full-year EPS growth guidance in constant currency despite a noted foreign exchange headwind. Free cash flow for the first half came in materially below consensus, driven by working-capital seasonality and timing of capital spending.

Kerry posts stronger-than-expected volume gains in first half, EBITDA in line with forecasts
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Key Points

  • Q2 volume growth of 3.5% exceeded analyst estimates of 3.0% to 3.1%, supporting first-half operational momentum.
  • First-half EBITDA was c558 million, matching consensus, with margins improving 60 basis points to 16.7%.
  • Free cash flow of c262 million missed consensus by c109 million, driven by an c81 million working-capital movement and c24 million higher capex timing; net debt remained c2,370 million (2.0x adjusted EBITDA).

Overview

Kerry reported second-quarter 2026 volume growth of 3.5%, outpacing analyst expectations of between 3.0% and 3.1%. For the first half of 2026, the company recorded EBITDA of c558 million, in line with consensus, and reported a year-over-year margin expansion of 60 basis points to 16.7%.

Earnings, guidance and currency

Adjusted earnings per share for the first half increased 7.9% in constant currency. Management maintained its full-year 2026 guidance for constant currency EPS growth of 6% to 10%. Analysts' average estimate stood at 8.3% for the year. The company flagged a foreign exchange headwind of 3% for its full-year outlook.

Cash flow and capital expenditure

Free cash flow in the first half totaled c262 million, representing a 29% shortfall versus the consensus figure of c371 million. Kerry attributed the difference primarily to an approximately c81 million movement in working capital related to seasonal patterns and the timing of receivables, together with an incremental c24 million of capital expenditure compared with the prior year driven by timing effects.

Regional performance

Americas posted second-quarter volume growth of 3.9%, with snacks, meat and beverages cited as the leading categories. The company highlighted strong trading in foodservice and Mexico. First-half EBITDA for the Americas reached c344 million, with margins up 40 basis points year-over-year.

Europe reported 0.6% volume growth in the second quarter. First-half EBITDA for the region was c110 million, and margins expanded by 80 basis points. The company attributed growth in Europe to beverage, dairy and snacks categories.

The APMEA region delivered 5.2% volume growth in the second quarter, ahead of estimates. First-half EBITDA for APMEA was c131 million with margins up 80 basis points. Kerry said that Middle East and Africa led regional volume gains, with dairy, meat, bakery and snacks performing well.

Balance sheet and shareholder return

Net debt at the period end stood at c2,370 million, equivalent to 2.0 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Kerry declared an interim dividend of c0.462 per share.


Contextual notes

The company presented a mix of operational strength in volumes and margin improvement, while cash conversion in the period was weaker than consensus due to identifiable working-capital and timing factors.

Risks

  • Foreign exchange exposure: management identified a 3% FX headwind to full-year EPS growth, which could weigh on reported results versus constant-currency performance.
  • Cash-flow variability: a sizable working-capital movement and timing-driven higher capital spending reduced free cash flow materially versus consensus, illustrating sensitivity of cash conversion to seasonality and receivable timing.
  • Regional disparity in volumes: uneven second-quarter volume growth across regions, including modest growth in Europe (0.6%), highlights potential variability in regional demand that could affect consolidated performance.

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