Shares in Nexans rose by over 3% on Wednesday after J.P. Morgan upgraded the French cable and electrification group from "neutral" to "overweight" and increased its December 2027 price target to 283 from 260. The broker said the end of a multi-year portfolio simplification program removes a material headwind to earnings growth and positions the company to capture rising demand for electricity infrastructure.
J.P. Morgan said Nexans has completed its "Simplify to Amplify" programme, reshaping the company into a pure-play electrification specialist. Over the past several years, Nexans disposed of assets representing roughly one-third of its 2021 revenue base, a process the broker says had weighed on earnings growth relative to peers.
With the final sale of its Autoelectric business concluded in early July, the bank argues Nexans has moved into an "amplification phase" where future growth will be driven increasingly by structural investment in electricity transmission and distribution rather than further portfolio pruning.
The broker expects this transition to make underlying business performance more visible and to accelerate earnings as transmission margins improve and distribution capacity expands. J.P. Morgan models a 15% compound annual growth rate in adjusted EBITDA through 2028, describing Nexans as offering one of the more robust earnings-growth profiles in the European electrification sector while trading at less than nine times estimated 2026 EV/EBITDA.
Following what it described as solid first-half results, the firm raised its adjusted EBITDA estimates by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 6% for 2028. Those revised forecasts now sit 4%, 3% and 6% above Bloomberg consensus for 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively.
J.P. Morgan's model forecasts 2028 adjusted EBITDA of 210.10 billion, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 210.04 billion. The broker added that Nexans can now reach its medium-term adjusted EBITDA target range of 210.08 billion to 210.23 billion organically with its current portfolio, while noting that additional bolt-on acquisitions could provide further upside.
Highlighting Nexans' exposure to the power grid, the analyst house estimated that more than 45% of the group's 2026 adjusted EBITDA will come from European transmission and distribution markets. It expects transmission earnings to benefit from an improving project mix and margin expansion, and it cited a planned 40% increase in European Power Grid capacity between 2025 and 2028 as supportive of faster revenue growth.
J.P. Morgan also pointed to recent acquisitions as strengthening the company's geographic and end-market exposure. Purchases including Republic Wire, Electro Cables and Cables RCT were cited as enhancing Nexans' position in North America and broadening its exposure to data centres, infrastructure and energy markets.
The upgrade and higher earnings outlook were the primary reasons given for the positive market reaction, with shares moving higher on the news as investors priced in the clearer earnings trajectory now that the companys portfolio reshaping is complete.
Context and implications
J.P. Morgans analysis frames the end of the divestment cycle as a turning point: the company can shift management attention from portfolio transactions to scaling its core electrification businesses. The brokers forecast upgrades and higher price target reflect confidence in both margin recovery in transmission and expanded distribution capacity supporting growth.
The broker's figures and expectations are based on Nexans' existing portfolio and recently announced disposals and acquisitions; the bank explicitly noted the potential for further upside from bolt-on deals but did not assume such transactions in its base case.