Two major brokerages have opened coverage on German space group OHB SE, each flagging the rise in European institutional funding for space programs as a central driver of future revenue, while arriving at different conclusions on valuation following a recent share-price advance.
Jefferies commenced coverage with a "buy" recommendation and assigned a €280 price objective, which equates to roughly 20% upside from OHB’s prior close of €233.50. The broker said the stock appears attractively valued after a sector-wide de-rating.
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "neutral" rating and set a €250 price target. Goldman noted that a significant portion of OHB’s long-term growth opportunity may already be priced into the shares after recent gains.
Valuation context
Jefferies measured OHB’s valuation at 2.7 times its 2027 sales estimate, compared with a 2.9 times average for European defence peers. The firm attributed part of OHB’s discount to a widespread selloff in listed space stocks following the SpaceX IPO, a move that pushed the sector index more than 60% below late-May highs.
Goldman likewise emphasized OHB’s status as one of Europe’s limited number of publicly listed pure-play space businesses with valuable exposure to accelerating institutional space spending, but cautioned that the share price already reflects a substantial share of expected expansion.
Public spending cited as a structural demand driver
Both brokerages point to rising European public investment in space and defence as underpinning OHB’s outlook. Jefferies highlighted a 32% increase in the European Space Agency’s 2026-2028 budget, about €50 billion allocated to space under the EU’s 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework, and Germany’s planned €35 billion military-space investment through 2030.
Goldman referenced €22.3 billion of ESA commitments for 2026-2028, the European Commission’s proposed €131 billion envelope for defence, security and space covering 2028-2034, and the same German military-space programme cited by Jefferies. Both firms regard these public commitments as a structural source of demand for companies like OHB.
Financial and operational forecasts
Jefferies laid out a revenue path that rises from current levels to €1.45 billion in 2026, €1.82 billion in 2027 and €2.35 billion in 2028. It expects adjusted EBITDA margins to expand from 10.7% in 2026 to 13% by 2030, driven by operating leverage, factory industrialisation and a larger share of higher-margin defence work.
Goldman presented a broader operating performance projection, with total operating performance growing from €1.25 billion in 2025 to in excess of €4.0 billion by 2030, implying an approximate 26% compound annual growth rate. Goldman’s forecast raises adjusted EBITDA from €126 million to €527 million over that period, taking margins to about 13.1%.
On earnings, Jefferies estimated EPS of €3.84 in 2026, €5.30 in 2027 and €7.64 in 2028.
Growth catalysts and operational considerations
Jefferies identified the pending SATCOMBw4 military satellite communications contract - for which OHB has partnered with Rheinmetall - and the IRIS2 sovereign broadband constellation as key potential order drivers.
Goldman pointed to OHB’s record backlog of €3.4 billion and an identified opportunity pipeline of roughly €20 billion, together with expanding capacity across the group’s Space Systems, Access to Space and Digital businesses, as foundations for longer-term growth. At the same time, Goldman stressed that programme execution, capacity expansion and cash conversion are critical to achieving the forecast trajectory.
Principal risks
Jefferies flagged several execution risks: managing fixed-price contracts, reliance on government funding streams and the outcome of Rocket Factory Augsburg’s inaugural RFA ONE Block 1 launch. The broker assigned a 70% probability of failure to that first launch based on industry statistics.
Goldman singled out programme execution, competitive pressures and cash-conversion performance as its main downside risks. Both houses noted that stronger-than-assumed pipeline conversion, faster growth in space budgets and successful launches at Rocket Factory Augsburg would represent upside scenarios.
In sum, both Jefferies and Goldman see expanding European public budgets for space and defence as material tailwinds for OHB. They diverge, however, on how much of that future opportunity is already embedded in the company’s current share price and on the balance of risks tied to execution, capacity expansion and cash conversion.