Stock Markets August 5, 2026 01:06 AM

Indonesia Q2 GDP Beats Expectations but Momentum Slows From Earlier in Year

Economy expands 5.29% year-on-year in Q2; quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.73% and slight miss versus government projection

By Nina Shah
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Indonesia's economy grew 5.29% in the second quarter from a year earlier, surpassing market forecasts but decelerating from a 5.61% expansion in the first quarter. On a non-seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis GDP rose 3.73%. The reading was marginally below the government's 5.4% forecast and arrives amid scrutiny of presidential policy moves that have weighed on the rupiah and local equities.

Indonesia Q2 GDP Beats Expectations but Momentum Slows From Earlier in Year
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Key Points

  • Indonesia's GDP rose 5.29% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding the market expectation of 5.10%.
  • Quarter-on-quarter GDP (non-seasonally adjusted) increased 3.73%, while growth slowed from 5.61% in Q1.
  • The Q2 print was slightly below the government's 5.4% forecast and coincides with policy scrutiny that has pressured the rupiah and local equities.

Indonesia's economic output expanded 5.29% in the second quarter year-on-year, official figures from Statistics Indonesia showed Wednesday. The result topped the market consensus of 5.10% but represented a slowdown from the 5.61% growth registered in the first quarter.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, gross domestic product increased 3.73% from the previous quarter, according to the agency's release. The quarterly print also came in slightly under the government's projection of a 5.4% increase for the period.

The moderation from the first quarter reflects changes in seasonal spending patterns. The first quarter benefited from holiday-related activity, including Christmas and New Year spending concentrated in January, and the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan together with the Eid-al-Fitr holiday, which largely overlapped with March this year. By contrast, in 2025 the Eid holiday occurred in April, shifting the associated spending patterns across reporting periods.

Analysts and market participants will weigh the quarterly slowdown alongside the headline beat. The data arrives as President Prabowo Subianto's policy agenda has drawn heightened scrutiny - developments that have been associated with marked weakness in the rupiah and pressure on Indonesian stocks, which fell to record lows earlier in the year.

This GDP release therefore offers a mixed signal: growth that outperforms private-sector expectations but with a clear loss of momentum versus the start of the year and a small miss relative to official forecasts. Policymakers and investors will likely monitor forthcoming activity indicators and policy developments for signs of whether the deceleration is temporary or signals a more persistent easing of momentum.


Contextual note: The figures reported here are those published by Statistics Indonesia. The article reports only the data points and descriptions contained in that release, including the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rates and the comparison to market and government forecasts.

Risks

  • Slowing momentum from Q1 could signal softer demand in sectors sensitive to consumer spending and seasonal holiday effects - impacting retail and services activity.
  • Policy scrutiny surrounding the presidency has coincided with a weaker rupiah and depressed equity prices, introducing market and currency volatility risks for investors and import-dependent sectors.
  • The Q2 outcome narrowly missed the government forecast, creating uncertainty around near-term growth expectations and potential policy responses that could affect financial markets.

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