Apple Inc. plans to enter the foldable smartphone market with a passport-style iPhone expected to ship in September, and research firm IDC estimates shipments will exceed 10 million units within the device's first 12 months on the market.
IDC's forecast also assigns a premium retail price to the handset - $2,500 - positioning the device at the top end of the market. That price, IDC says, targets a small, wealthy cohort of consumers. "I expect the passport-style Apple foldable to be widely successful despite the high $2,500 price tag," said Nabila Popal, IDC senior research director. "A very elite set of consumers are being targeted here, who will be lining up to buy the device."
The foldable category, defined by devices that fold like a book to switch between smartphone and tablet form factors, has remained a niche within the broader mobile market. IDC's projections show the segment expanding by 12.6% this year and by 18% next year, and the firm expects Apple to account for 40% of all foldable shipments in 2027.
Those foldable units command higher prices than typical phones, which helps manufacturers extract stronger margins even as the category itself represents a relatively small slice of the global smartphone market - a market that exceeds 1 billion units annually.
At the same time, IDC has trimmed its outlook for the wider smartphone market, forecasting a 16.7% decline this year. The firm cites rising component costs - notably for memory chips and other parts - as a constraint on production and a driver of higher retail prices. "The components that make AI possible are the same ones in short supply, and their cost is being passed straight through to the shelf," said IDC's Francisco Jeronimo. "The era of the cheap smartphone has ended."
In practical terms, the elevated price points for foldable devices make them an attractive, profitable niche for manufacturers even as component shortages and higher costs weigh on overall shipments and consumer pricing across the smartphone industry.
Key points
- IDC projects more than 10 million first-year shipments for Apple's first foldable iPhone, due in September.
- The passport-style device is expected to retail at $2,500 and target a high-end consumer segment.
- IDC expects foldable category growth of 12.6% this year and 18% next year, with Apple taking 40% of foldable shipments in 2027.
Risks and uncertainties
- Rising costs for memory chips and other components are limiting production and pushing retail prices higher, which could affect overall smartphone demand.
- IDC has revised its forecast for the broader smartphone market down to a 16.7% decline this year, indicating demand and volume risks across the sector.