Stock Markets August 26, 2026 04:24 PM

HP Raises Full-Year Outlook as Tariff Refunds and Price Gains Bolster Q4 Forecast

Company says tariff reimbursements and premium, AI-focused PC pricing should offset higher memory costs

By Marcus Reed
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HP expects adjusted earnings per share of $0.69 to $0.79 in the current quarter, topping analyst consensus, as estimated tariff refunds and price increases on premium and AI-enabled personal computers help absorb memory chip cost pressures. The company reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue and raised its annual adjusted EPS guidance.

HP Raises Full-Year Outlook as Tariff Refunds and Price Gains Bolster Q4 Forecast
HPQ
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Key Points

  • HP forecasts fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.69 to $0.79, above the $0.67 analyst consensus; the outlook includes an $0.08 per-share boost from estimated tariff refunds.
  • Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.83, including an $0.11-per-share benefit from tariff refunds, and revenue rose 12.5% year-over-year to $15.7 billion, helped by demand for AI-optimized PCs.
  • HP raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $3.19 to $3.29, which factors in an estimated $0.19-per-share favorable impact from tariff refunds; the company had previously guided $2.90 to $3.10.

HP said on Wednesday it expects adjusted earnings per share for the current quarter to land between $0.69 and $0.79, a projection that sits above Wall Street's consensus. The company attributed part of that uplift to estimated tariff refunds and to pricing actions on higher-end and AI-optimized personal computers that should help mitigate rising memory costs.

The midrange forecast compares with analysts' average estimate of $0.67 per share, based on data compiled by LSEG. HP said the quarterly outlook reflects an $0.08 per-share boost tied to anticipated tariff reimbursements.

In a separate detail, HP reported adjusted earnings of $0.83 per share for the quarter ended July 31, which included an $0.11-per-share benefit from tariff refunds. That reported figure topped analysts' estimates of $0.69 per share.

Revenue for the third quarter came in at $15.7 billion, up 12.5% from the prior year and above consensus of $14.38 billion, with the company citing strong demand for AI-optimized personal computers as a contributor to the topline gain.

"In the third quarter, we increased both total sales and share in premium products and continued to attract new customers with innovations in WXP, Print, workstations and AI PCs," HP's interim CEO Bruce Broussard said. "Our ongoing strategy to address environmental constraints led to meaningful improvements in memory supply and higher fulfillment rates."

HP confirmed that its upward revisions for the current quarter and the prior-quarter results reflect estimated tariff refunds tied to duties that were levied before those tariffs were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, a development referenced in a recent court filing that said about $100 billion had been returned by the U.S. administration.

On an annual basis, HP raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.19 to $3.29. That updated outlook incorporates an estimated $0.19-per-share favorable impact from tariff refunds over the full year. The company had previously guided to a $2.90 to $3.10 range for annual adjusted EPS.

The pricing actions are not unique to HP. The company and several rivals, including Dell Technologies, Apple and China's Lenovo Group, moved to increase device prices after a global shortage of memory chips exerted upward pressure on component costs. Lenovo earlier reported a 43% jump in quarterly revenue in August, a gain the company attributed to strong demand for AI hardware and the application of higher prices during the memory shortage.


What this means

HP's near-term profit outlook is supported by a mix of one-time tariff-related benefits and sustained pricing power in higher-margin, AI-capable products. The company also signaled improved memory supply and fulfillment rates as a factor behind its quarterly performance.

Methodology note - The company referenced LSEG data for analyst estimates and cited figures from a recent court filing on tariff reimbursements.

Risks

  • The company’s near-term results include estimated tariff refunds - if the final refund amounts differ from current estimates, earnings could be affected. This impacts technology and corporate earnings reporting.
  • Higher memory costs remain a pressure point that HP is offsetting with price increases; ongoing component shortages or cost spikes could weigh on margins in the tech hardware sector.
  • Portions of the earnings upside reflect one-time or timing-related items (tariff reimbursements), introducing uncertainty about sustainability of profit gains in future periods for PC makers and related suppliers.

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