Goldman Sachs is retaining Buy ratings on three major lodging companies as the sector approaches second-quarter earnings season, pointing to robust U.S. demand that is compensating for weaker international trends. The investment bank highlighted Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Marriott International and Hyatt as the top picks, noting each company is tracking toward the high end of its systemwide RevPAR guidance range for 2026.
Bank outlook and modeling
Goldman Sachs raised several of its short-term RevPAR forecasts for the group and provided refreshed adjusted EBITDA estimates for both the quarter and full year of 2026. The firm emphasized that domestic U.S. performance is driving its upgrades, while international pressures - including softness in China - are being offset by stronger North American results.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (NYSE: HLT) - Buy
Goldman Sachs remains constructive on Hilton even as the company trades near historically elevated valuation levels and attracts concentrated investor interest. The bank points to Hilton’s large exposure to U.S. rooms and relatively low fee exposure to Mexico, China and the Middle East as advantageous by comparison.
The firm lifted its systemwide RevPAR growth estimate for the second quarter of 2026 to 3.3% from a prior 2.5%, driven by an increase in the U.S. assumption to 5.0% from 3.9%. For full-year 2026, Goldman projects systemwide RevPAR growth of 3.0%, which sits at the high end of Hilton’s own 2.0% to 3.0% guidance range.
On profitability, Goldman Sachs models second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA for Hilton at $1,036 million and full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA at $4,050 million.
Operationally, Hilton has announced a new brand aimed at college markets called Undergraduate by Hilton and is planning a direct booking integration with corporate travel firm Navan.
Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) - Buy
Goldman Sachs retained a positive view on Marriott despite some investor concerns tied to hotel owner dissatisfaction with the Bonvoy loyalty program and softer RevPAR commentary for April. The bank raised its systemwide RevPAR growth forecast for second-quarter 2026 to 3.3% from 2.1%, driven by a stronger North America RevPAR assumption of 5.6% versus 4.0% previously.
Goldman now models full-year 2026 systemwide RevPAR growth for Marriott at 3.0%, placing the company at the top of its 2.0% to 3.0% guidance range. The firm’s earnings model estimates second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA at $1,555 million and full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA at $5,951 million.
Following its first-quarter results, Marriott received a price-target increase from UBS, which the bank tied to an improved RevPAR outlook. Marriott has also initiated a beta of an AI-powered booking search tool, Ask Bonvoy.
Hyatt (NYSE: H) - Buy
Hyatt has outpaced its lodging peers since its May 28 Investor Day, with the stock gaining 4% while peers declined about 3% in the same period, according to the bank’s note. Goldman Sachs expects Hyatt to either beat or reach the high end of its second-quarter 2026 expectations, raising its systemwide RevPAR growth projection to 3.9% from 3.1% previously.
The U.S. RevPAR assumption for Hyatt was increased to 5.2% from 2.7%, offsetting weakness in China in Goldman’s model. For full-year 2026, the firm raised its systemwide RevPAR estimate to 3.6% from 3.4%, which sits at the high end of Hyatt’s 2.0% to 4.0% guidance range.
Goldman Sachs models Hyatt’s second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA at $289 million and full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA at $1,162 million.
Hyatt’s outlook has prompted price-target increases from Stifel and Mizuho after the company’s investor day, and analysts at Macquarie have noted Hyatt’s favorable positioning tied to its exposure to luxury and upper-upscale segments.
Implications for investors and the sector
Goldman Sachs’ analysis centers on the dominance of U.S. demand in driving near-term results for large, global lodging companies. The bank’s upgrades to U.S. RevPAR assumptions and corresponding EBITDA models suggest that investors should watch domestic performance closely as companies release quarterly results, while keeping an eye on international markets such as China that remain weaker.
Goldman’s Buy ratings and higher modeled earnings for the three chains reflect confidence in U.S. leisure and business travel trends supporting margin expansion, even as owner-level issues or regional softness present localized headwinds.
What the note does not change
Goldman Sachs’ commentary does not alter the companies’ publicly stated guidance ranges; instead, the bank’s projections place each firm at the upper end of its respective 2026 systemwide RevPAR guidance band. The firm’s estimates and rationale rest on the mix of U.S. exposure and ongoing domestic RevPAR strength.