Goldman Sachs adjusted its short-term U.S. GDP tracking gauge higher on Tuesday, increasing the third-quarter estimate to 2.7% annualized from a previous 2.4% projection. The move reflects what the bank described as stronger-than-expected detail in recently released factory orders and trade balance figures.
The revision amounts to a 0.3 percentage-point upward shift on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis. Goldman Sachs left its estimate for second-quarter GDP tracking unchanged at 1.5%.
On the labor front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed job openings fell by 178,000 in June to 7.359 million. That result was below both the median forecast of 7.454 million and Goldman Sachs' own estimate of 7.3 million. May's openings were revised down by 57,000 to 7.537 million.
Goldman Sachs noted the decrease in openings was largely driven by the health care sector, which lost 147,000 positions in June. The bank described that decline as part of continued normalization following a large increase in April.
Other JOLTS metrics were stable or slightly higher: the quits rate held at 2.0%, the layoff rate remained at 1.1%, and the hiring rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4%.
June factory orders fell by 0.3% month over month, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase. May factory orders were revised up by 0.2 percentage points, leaving May marked as a 1.1% decline after revision.
Stripping out transportation, factory orders were down 0.4% in June, contrary to projections for growth. Within core capital goods, orders' growth was revised up by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%, while shipments' growth was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.0%.
To assess labor market slack, Goldman Sachs estimated the jobs-workers gap at 0.2 million, a level that is 0.8 million below its pre-pandemic benchmark. The bank's estimate integrates job openings metrics from JOLTS alongside measures from Indeed and LinkUp.
Implications: Goldman Sachs' upward revision to its Q3 tracking estimate reflects incoming trade and factory-order details that, in the bank's view, point to stronger activity. The labor-market readings present a mixed picture, with fewer openings overall but steady quits and layoffs and a modest increase in hiring.