Market participants enter Monday, November 16, 2026, with a focused calendar of events that could influence trading patterns and risk positioning. The day’s lineup centers on a regional manufacturing survey, two Federal Reserve speeches and the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports that disclose speculative net positions across multiple futures markets.
Overview of the schedule
No events on the docket are flagged as 3-star on the calendar for the day, but several releases and speeches carry the potential to alter near-term market sentiment.
- 8:30 AM ET - NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - The prior reading was 25.50. This survey captures the general business conditions reported by roughly 200 manufacturers in New York state. Readings above zero signal improving conditions.
- 9:05 AM ET - Remarks by FOMC member John Williams - Williams is scheduled to speak and his comments may offer insight into the Fed’s policy thinking.
- 12:00 PM ET - Remarks by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh - Warsh, sworn in as the 17th Chair in May 2026 and an FOMC voting member charged with setting benchmark interest rates, will deliver remarks closely watched for policy direction signals.
- 3:30 PM ET - Weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders reports - The COT releases will show speculative net positions across a broad set of futures: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, gold, crude oil, aluminum, silver, copper, natural gas, wheat, corn and soybeans.
Details and prior readings
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - Previous: 25.50. The index is based on responses from about 200 manufacturers in New York state and is interpreted as signaling improvement when the reading is above zero.
- CFTC S&P 500 speculative positions - Previous: -129.4K. This figure represents the net positioning of speculative traders in S&P 500 futures.
- CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative positions - Previous: 42.9K.
- CFTC Gold speculative positions - Previous: 179.5K.
- CFTC Crude Oil speculative positions - Previous: 80.3K.
- CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions - Previous: -1.4K.
- CFTC Silver speculative positions - Previous: 21.3K.
- CFTC Copper speculative positions - Previous: 37.7K.
- CFTC Natural Gas speculative positions - Previous: -258.9K.
- CFTC Wheat speculative positions - Previous: -62.5K.
- CFTC Corn speculative positions - Previous: 137.6K.
- CFTC Soybeans speculative positions - Previous: 163.6K.
In addition to the COT data, the Treasury will hold auctions for short-term bills that can influence money market rates and short-end Treasury yields.
- 11:30 AM ET - 3-Month Bill Auction - Forecast: 4.099%, Previous: 4.060%.
- 11:30 AM ET - 6-Month Bill Auction - Previous: 4.145%.
Market context noted ahead of the releases
The original market snapshot included intraday movements showing the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) down 1.33%, the US 500 (US500) down 0.55% and a range of commodity and short-rate moves including GC -0.09%, HG -1.84%, SI -2.21%, CL -0.18% and NG -3.11%, along with various grain and short-rate indicators such as ZS +1.02%, ZW +1.56%, ZC +0.56%, US3MT -0.17% and US6MT -0.09%, and a reference to MAL -0.33%. Those figures provide a snapshot of prevailing market moves ahead of the scheduled data.
The COT reports published at 3:30 PM ET will break down speculative positioning in the major futures markets listed above, offering a look at how non-commercial traders are positioned across equities, metals, energy and agricultural contracts. The weekly snapshot of net positions is often used by market participants to gauge prevailing sentiment and to identify potential crowded trades.
What to watch in the releases
The Empire State Manufacturing Index will give a regional read on factory conditions in New York state. Because the index is survey-based and draws on responses from around 200 manufacturers, it is used as one of several timely indicators for manufacturing activity.
Comments from Fed officials - first from FOMC member John Williams and later from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh - will be parsed for any signals about monetary policy. Warsh, who assumed the chair in May 2026 as the 17th Chair and participates as an FOMC voting member on rate decisions, is a particularly watched speaker for indications about the future path of benchmark interest rates.
The Treasury’s 3-month and 6-month bill auctions are scheduled at 11:30 AM ET and will provide additional information on short-term funding rates and investor demand for government paper.
Takeaway
Monday’s sequence of a manufacturer survey, central bank commentary and the COT reports creates a compact set of inputs that could influence market positioning across equity, commodity and fixed-income markets. Traders and analysts will be watching the readings and speeches for directional cues and to reassess speculative positioning revealed in the weekly CFTC releases.