Stock Markets June 26, 2026 06:59 AM

Deutsche Bank Opens Coverage on Brunello Cucinelli with Buy Rating, Sees c.15% EPS CAGR

Broker sets 96.80 euro target while Bernstein previews H1 results due July 30 and maintains an outperform view with a 108 euro target

By Derek Hwang
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Deutsche Bank has launched coverage of Italian luxury house Brunello Cucinelli SpA with a buy recommendation and a 96.80 euro price target, projecting roughly 15% average annual EPS growth through 2028. The call comes alongside a Bernstein preview of the group's first-half results due July 30, where Bernstein reiterates an outperform rating and a 108 euro target while outlining growth and margin expectations across channels and regions.

Deutsche Bank Opens Coverage on Brunello Cucinelli with Buy Rating, Sees c.15% EPS CAGR
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Key Points

  • Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of Brunello Cucinelli with a "buy" and set a 96.80 euro price target, forecasting roughly 15% average annual EPS growth through 2028.
  • Bernstein previewed first-half results due July 30, reiterating an "outperform" rating with a 108 euro target and expecting Q2 2026 constant-currency revenue growth above 10% with a 1% to 1.5% FX headwind.
  • Bernstein forecasts retail growth at a mid-teens rate, flat to slightly positive wholesale, modest margin gains of 20-30 basis points, regional variances including double-digit growth in China, and capex at about 6% of sales weighted to H1 2026.

Deutsche Bank has initiated coverage of Brunello Cucinelli SpA with a "buy" rating and a price target of 96.80 euros, projecting average annual earnings-per-share growth of about 15% through 2028. The move by the bank arrives as Bernstein issued a preview of the Italian luxury group's first-half results, which are due on July 30.

Analyst Do-Hyun Yoo at Deutsche Bank set the 96.80 euro target against a last closing price of 81.14 euros. Yoo and the bank expect Brunello Cucinelli to be "capable of delivering 25-28E EPS CAGR of c.15%."

Deutsche Bank said its forecasts are founded on what it described as the company's consistent execution of a roughly 10% cFX sales growth algorithm. The broker attributed that trajectory to three elements it sees as driving the brand: an expanding top-end luxury customer base, a deliberately curated everyday wardrobe that encourages sustained higher average spend, and broad brand resonance tied to the company's stated philosophy of "Humanistic Capitalism."

On profitability, Deutsche Bank expects a more measured improvement in EBIT margins, stating an assumption of "a more gradual EBIT margin expansion based on its more mature operational structure."


Separately, Bernstein continues to rate the stock as "outperform" with a price target of 108 euros. In its preview of the first-half results, Bernstein noted that Brunello Cucinelli reiterated growth ambitions in excess of 10% for the second quarter of 2026 at constant currency. Bernstein also expects foreign exchange to be a headwind of approximately 1% to 1.5% for that period.

Bernstein projects modest profitability gains of about 20 to 30 basis points stemming from gross margin improvement and operating leverage. The broker expects retail to expand at a mid-teens percentage rate in the quarter, while wholesale is seen as flat to slightly positive.

The firm highlighted regional and channel nuances: retail performance in the Middle East remains negative but has been improving from a 50% decline recorded in April; the Middle East accounts for roughly 5% of group sales. By geography, Bernstein anticipates Europe to grow at a mid-single-digit rate, the Americas in the mid-to-high teens, and Asia at a mid-to-high-single-digit rate at constant exchange rates, with China singled out for double-digit growth.

On investment spending, Bernstein said capital expenditure will stay at around 6% of sales, with spending skewed more towards the first half of 2026.


Both broker notes present a consistent picture of revenue expansion supported by targeted customer segments and regional performance differences, while differing slightly on margin timing and ultimate upside. Deutsche Bank's initiation focuses on a multi-year EPS compound annual growth rate, whereas Bernstein's preview emphasizes near-term quarterly ambitions, currency headwinds, and channel-level expectations ahead of the H1 results due July 30.

Risks

  • Foreign exchange movements are expected to act as a headwind of roughly 1% to 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026, potentially damping reported growth - this impacts revenue reporting for luxury retailers.
  • Middle East retail performance remains negative despite improvement from a 50% decline in April, posing a regional risk given the Middle East represents about 5% of group sales.
  • A more mature operational structure could limit rapid EBIT margin expansion, meaning profitability gains may be more gradual than revenue growth suggests - relevant to investors assessing margin-sensitive valuations in the luxury sector.

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