Citi has reaffirmed its Neutral recommendation on RWE and kept a price target of EUR60 per share while placing the stock on a 90-day upside Catalyst Watch, signalling that the broker sees a set of identifiable near-term events that could lift the share price.
The bank expects RWE to use its second-quarter 2026 results to lift guidance, and it named a cluster of possible catalysts: favourable outcomes from German gas capacity auctions and further disposals of potential data center sites drawn from the company's land and connection portfolio.
On the auction front, RWE is participating in bids for about 3 gigawatts of capacity in the German gas capacity auctions that are scheduled for September and December. Separately, the company holds a portfolio of more than 3 gigawatts of connection points that Citi views as potential candidates for data center site disposals.
Citi's near-term financial expectations for RWE are explicit. The broker forecasts second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of EUR1,138 million, which represents a 37% increase on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted net income for the quarter is expected to reach EUR415 million, up 50% year-over-year. Based on these projections, Citi believes RWE will probably raise its full-year EBITDA objective by roughly EUR0.4 billion, accounting for EUR0.3 billion in Eemshaven compensation already recognised in the first quarter and an expected additional EUR0.1 billion contribution from Amprion in the second half of the year.
Citi also projects 2026 EBITDA at EUR5.92 billion. That forecast modestly exceeds consensus estimates of EUR5.86 billion and sits above the company's own guidance range of EUR5.2 billion to EUR5.8 billion. The broker notes that higher commodity and power prices could act as a tailwind for RWE's power generation and trading operations.
Taken together, Citi's stance combines a neutral long-term view with a watchful shorter-term posture that highlights several execution-dependent upside scenarios. The bank has quantified specific quarterly metrics and a full-year EBITDA projection while linking potential upward guidance revisions to identifiable items already visible in the company's results and portfolio.