Citi has rolled out an updated server CPU total addressable market model that projects the market will grow to $132 billion by 2030, up from $29.3 billion in 2025 and implying a 35% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the period.
The analysis divides the market into three segments: general purpose CPUs, AI head nodes, and agentic CPU applications. According to the model, agentic CPUs are the fastest-growing segment, forecast to expand at a 185% CAGR and to reach $59.4 billion by 2030, accounting for 45% of the overall market at that time. General purpose CPUs are projected to grow at a 20% CAGR to $50.9 billion, while AI head nodes are expected to increase at a 21% CAGR to $21.1 billion.
Looking at vendor share, Citi projects that by 2030 Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) will command 47% of the server CPU market, with Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) holding 34%, and ARM and other competitors together making up the remaining 19%.
Drawing on the updated TAM model and related industry developments, Citi raised its price target on Intel to $130. The firm cited higher data center sales estimates and potential upside from Intel’s ASIC business, pointing in particular to Intel’s Mount Evans IPU, which the research note says is being used by Google and Anthropic.
Citi also increased its price target for AMD to $460, raising its data center sales projections consistent with the revised CPU market outlook. The analysts stated that, based on industry discussions, they believe AMD has secured Anthropic as a customer for its MI450 AI accelerator and that an announcement is expected at AMD’s Advancing AI day in July.
The research team characterizes AMD as a potential primary beneficiary of what it calls a CPU renaissance, highlighting the company’s performance leadership and its capacity allocation at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).
These projections and corporate outlook adjustments are grounded in Citi’s new TAM model and conversations within the industry. The research note links expanded data center sales forecasts and specific product deployments to the revised view of the server CPU opportunity.