Citi said April's US trade statistics showed only a small change in the headline deficit, which remained at -$55.9 billion, as both nominal exports and imports increased. The bank described the April trade profile as likely to be modestly positive for second quarter gross domestic product.
On the goods and services split, goods exports rose 4.1% month-over-month while services exports fell 0.4%. On the import side, goods imports increased 2.1% and services imports were up 1.7%.
Looking at real, inflation-adjusted flows, goods exports advanced 0.8% month-over-month while goods imports edged down 0.1% in real terms.
Regional goods balances shifted in April. The US goods deficit with Canada widened from -$3.7 billion to -$6.2 billion. The goods balance with China tightened to $12.0 billion, and the goods deficit with the European Union tightened to -$7.2 billion.
The effective tariff rate measured on the basis of imports and customs duty collections held essentially steady at 6.7% in April.
Capital goods movements were a notable part of the picture. Real exports of capital goods rose 5.5%, a rise Citi links in part to shipments of US-produced aircraft and stronger electrical equipment exports. The bank noted that the stronger electrical equipment exports may reflect international demand for AI-related investment goods. By contrast, exports of gold fell from previously elevated levels.
On the import side, real capital goods imports continued to climb amid AI investment. Computer imports recovered after a temporary dip in March, and imports of telecommunications and electrical equipment also continued to increase.
Consumer-oriented imports remained weak year-to-date. Real imports contracted across most categories, including industrial supplies, consumer goods, and automobiles.
Energy exports were highlighted as rising in nominal terms: exports of oil and related products increased substantially due to higher prices. Citi pointed to weekly data on barrels exported that suggest May exports may rise further.
Market indicators in the text show commodity moves alongside the trade release, including GC down 1.02% and LCO down 3.5%.