Bank of America Global Research has trimmed near-term expectations for metals after its Commodities team revised down forecasts across precious and base metals, prompting analyst Lawson Winder to lower estimates and valuations across the North American metals and mining coverage universe.
The firm cut a total of 30 price targets - including 21 for precious metals stocks, three for base metals and four for steel-related names - and reduced 2026 earnings or price estimates for 28 of the 30 companies it follows in the sector. The Commodities team expects conditions to remain challenging through autumn, while leaving open the possibility of a recovery after the summer.
Even with the softer near-term commodity outlook, BofA said it retains its highest conviction for upside in select commodity areas - notably uranium, nickel, platinum and silver - and flagged downside implied by U.S. hot rolled coil steel prices. Within that framework the bank identified three stocks it views as best positioned to perform if market conditions align with its longer-term forecasts.
1) Cameco (CCJ)
BofA kept a constructive stance on uranium markets, noting spot uranium prices remain roughly 23% below the firm’s 2026 average forecast. The bank pointed to factors such as contracting frictions, supply discipline and potential utility restocking as sources of upside to the market. Against that backdrop, Cameco is BofA’s top uranium pick for 2026.
Key elements of the recommendation include Cameco’s sensitivity to realized uranium price moves and what BofA describes as a strong balance sheet positioning. The bank quantified approximately 48% upside for Cameco to its firm price objective. In addition, BofA highlighted Cameco’s exposure to U.S. nuclear build-out through its 49% ownership stake in Westinghouse Electric Company as a supportive structural factor.
2) Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
On base metals, BofA said that with copper prices largely in line with its 2026 forecast, returns for investors will depend more on stock selection than on macro commodity moves. The bank reiterated Freeport-McMoRan as its preferred base-metals exposure for 2026.
BofA cited Freeport’s leverage to copper via an operating turnaround and visible growth from current production levels that it believes is not fully captured by the company’s valuation. The bank assigns roughly 35% upside potential to Freeport versus its price objective. Separately, BofA noted it materially reduced its aluminum price assumptions, leaving limited upside to that metal under its 2026 view.
3) Pan American Silver (PAAS)
BofA lowered its 2026 gold price forecast by 14%, to $4,360 per ounce, while projecting a potential rebound in 2027 to $4,813 per ounce contingent on the end of rate hikes. Despite the downward adjustment to some precious metals forecasts, the bank continued to see relatively stronger upside in platinum and silver versus spot prices for 2026.
Pan American Silver was added to BofA’s list of top precious metals picks. The bank pointed to underpriced silver exposure, the prospect of rising capital returns, dormant-asset optionality and quantified about 56% upside to its price objective for the company.
Overall, the research note reflects BofA’s move to tighten near-term commodity expectations across multiple metals while singling out specific companies and commodity sub-sectors where the firm sees greater upside potential over its 2026 outlook horizon.
Sections of the market and economy impacted by these revisions include mining equities across precious and base metals, steel-related businesses given the downside signaled for hot rolled coil, and utilities or industrials that are sensitive to base metals and aluminum pricing. The bank’s emphasis on uranium and U.S. nuclear supply-chain links also touches project finance and capital allocation decisions in the nuclear sector.