Bernstein updated investors with a bullish view on memory equities after new pricing indicators showed substantial jumps in contract DRAM and NAND prices expected for the second quarter of calendar 2026. The firm said the projected increases are larger than it had previously estimated.
In a client note, Bernstein kept Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk at Outperform, assigning price targets of KRW 225,000, KRW 1,150,000, $510, and $1,700, respectively. KIOXIA was left at Underperform.
Analyst Mark Li called out sharp month-to-quarter moves in DRAM in April, reporting that overall DRAM contract prices were up 57% versus the first quarter. He broke that gain down further - server DRAM rose 48%, mobile DRAM climbed roughly 80%, and consumer DRAM increased by about 60%.
On the NAND side, Bernstein indicated contract prices were set to increase by 65%-70% quarter-on-quarter, with the firm attributing that rise primarily to stronger pricing in SSDs and mobile NAND packages.
"Both DRAM and NAND contract prices are indicated to see another major increase in 2QCY26, and at a rate ahead of our expectation too," Li wrote. He added that "demand remained robust for server DRAM and eSSD, and continued keeping supply tight."
Despite the pronounced contract-price strength, Bernstein cautioned that spot market data painted a more mixed picture. The firm noted that server DDR5 module spot prices were down 6.7% month-on-month, while NAND wafer spot prices fell by roughly 7%. Bernstein said those spot declines reflect price increases weighing on consumer-end demand and prompting OEMs and module houses to pare back purchases.
Looking forward, Bernstein expects the pace of price increases to decelerate markedly into the third quarter. Its modelling shows memory prices remaining robust through calendar 2027 before starting to normalize from the second half of 2027 into 2028.
The note keeps attention on both contract and spot dynamics as complementary signals - contracts pointing to continued strength in the near term, while some spot measures suggest buyers are responding to higher prices. Bernstein's company ratings and price targets underline its positive stance toward several large memory suppliers even as it highlights the potential for demand moderation later in 2026 and into 2027.