The Philippines' budget planning committee announced a medium-term economic framework that aims for gross domestic product growth between 5.0% and 6.0% for the 2027-2030 period, according to the agency's statement on Wednesday.
The planning body cautioned that higher-than-normal inflation this year may weigh on household consumption and on business investment. It said those inflationary pressures could reduce domestic demand and slow the pace of spending by consumers and firms.
In its assessment the committee also signaled an expectation that economic growth will moderate this year, citing heightened domestic and external uncertainties as factors that could dampen activity over the near term.
On inflation assumptions, the committee set a 2026 range of 6% to 7%. It projected inflation to ease to between 4% and 5% in 2027, followed by a further decline to a 2% to 4% range for the 2028-2030 period.
For the foreign exchange rate, planners assumed a peso trading range of 60 to 62 per U.S. dollar for each year from 2026 through 2030.
The committee also detailed a deficit reduction program that phases down the budget gap as a share of GDP across the medium term. Under the plan the deficit is projected at 5.4% of GDP in 2026, narrowing to 5.1% in 2027, 4.8% in 2028, 4.2% in 2029 and 3.5% in 2030.
These numbers are presented as planning assumptions and guideposts for budgeting and policy calibration. The committee's framework ties together growth expectations, inflation trajectories, exchange rate assumptions and a timetable for fiscal consolidation.
Context and implications
While the committee set a clear multi-year growth target, it also highlighted immediate risks - notably elevated inflation this year and broader uncertainties - that could moderate growth in the near term. The inflation projection path and deficit targets provide policy direction for the coming budgeting cycles.