Overview
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said on Tuesday that she is keeping an "open mind" about the path of monetary policy, acknowledging that the outlook could require higher interest rates. Her remarks, issued in a statement from the bank, were her first public comments following last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Support for the current stance
Paulson said she supported the Fed’s decision to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. She noted that "the recent improvement in some inflation data is welcome" and called the progress "a step in the right direction, but it is only one step." The policymaker framed her approach to future decisions as evidence-driven, saying: "I am committed to keeping an open mind as I assess the evidence and determine the appropriate path for policy."
Primary objectives and assessment
Paulson reiterated the Fed’s twin focus, stating that her "highest priority is delivering 2 percent inflation while sustaining full employment." She described the labor market as having "stabilized" and characterized inflation overall as "too high." Paulson said she will be watching incoming data closely to judge whether policy is restrictive enough to bring inflation down toward the 2 percent goal.
What the data imply
On how the data translate into policy implications, Paulson said that evidence of growing restraint from Fed policy should manifest in clear signs that inflation is easing. "If policy is appropriately calibrated, I would expect to see growing signs that inflation is coming down," she said. She also warned that if "underlying inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the passage of time without progress would itself signal that more restrictive policy is needed."
Inflation readings and other considerations
Paulson put underlying inflation in a band around 2.4% to 2.8%, noting that this level of price pressure "has been elevated for a long time, and it is what I am most focused on as I evaluate our progress toward the 2 percent target." She observed that the persistence of inflation above target contributed to three officials dissenting at the recent meeting and voting in favor of a rate increase.
Energy and supply shocks
Addressing energy market developments, Paulson said that "oil prices have since jumped and remain volatile," but she pointed to a brief period of Middle East stability as evidence that supply shocks can be temporary. That experience, she said, "reinforc[es] the case for looking through such disruptions when setting monetary policy."
Context
Paulson’s comments come as Fed officials weigh mixed signals: some improvement in inflation metrics alongside ongoing elevated underlying price pressures. In public remarks after the committee meeting, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to provide directive guidance on the future course of monetary policy.