The International Monetary Fund on Thursday outlined a subdued near-term outlook for Switzerland, forecasting a slowdown in growth next year before a modest acceleration in 2027.
The IMF's projections put Swiss real GDP growth at 1.1% in 2026, down from a projected 1.4% in 2025. When adjustments are made to strip out the impact of scheduled sporting events, the fund's 2026 estimate falls further to 0.8%.
Looking beyond 2026, the IMF expects growth to pick up to 1.2% in 2027. That figure rises to 1.5% once the influence of sporting events is taken into account, according to the statement.
Inflation is expected to remain low by the IMF's assessment, with full-year inflation forecast at 0.6%.
The fund attributed the near-term weakness chiefly to softer external demand. It said sluggish growth among Switzerland's trading partners, coupled with heightened geopolitical and tariff uncertainty, is damping external demand - a key driver of activity in an open economy.
Switzerland's own government has recently trimmed its outlook for next year, reducing its 2026 growth forecast slightly to 0.9%. Officials cited energy price increases linked to the Middle East crisis and the consequent drag on global activity as reasons for the revision.
The IMF stressed a set of principal risks that could push outcomes lower: adverse geopolitical events, further rises in energy prices and renewed flare-ups in trade tensions. These risks, the fund said, have the potential to weaken external demand and raise costs for the economy.
Despite the cautious near-term view, the statement noted Switzerland's traditional resilience. Large domestic sectors such as pharmaceuticals are less exposed to swings in global demand, providing some buffer against cyclical downturns.
In sum, the IMF expects a period of muted growth into 2026, influenced by external headwinds and energy-related cost pressures, followed by a modest rebound in 2027 as those forces ease and underlying strengths in the economy reassert themselves.