The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that prices for energy and several commodities have fallen since a U.S.-Iran agreement to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it cautioned that complete price normalization will not be immediate.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told reporters the institution is monitoring developments closely and will make a procedural decision on July 8 about whether to keep the three growth scenarios it issued in April - scenarios that were built around alternative outcomes of the Iran conflict - or to revert to a more conventional baseline in its next World Economic Outlook update.
Kozack noted that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed in May, a period when benchmark crude traded above $100 per barrel. That episode had already shifted the Fund's view away from the more optimistic "reference forecast," which assumed a rapid resolution to the conflict, and toward an "adverse scenario" that projects global growth at 2.5% for 2025.
On Thursday the IMF reported that prices for energy, fertilizer and base metals originating in the Gulf region have decreased since the diplomatic agreement. The institution added that, to date, global inflation expectations have remained anchored and financial conditions have stayed accommodative.
In its assessment the Fund identified net energy importers with weak fiscal buffers or limited oil reserves as the primary concern stemming from the Iran-related disruption. The IMF highlighted nations in Africa as particularly exposed to those strains.
The organization also pointed to strong momentum in India, describing the country as continuing to act as a growth engine for the global economy.
For transportation and commodities markets, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent easing in Gulf-linked prices reduce some near-term freight and input-cost pressures. Nonetheless, the IMF's caution that full normalization will take more time implies ongoing monitoring of shipping flows and commodity availability — factors that continue to influence freight rates and logistics planning.
With the Fund scheduled to determine its forecasting approach on July 8, market participants and policymakers will be watching for whether those April scenarios remain in place or if the World Economic Outlook returns to a single baseline projection.