Research due to be presented at an upcoming European Central Bank forum finds that affluent nations with the largest immigration gains since 1990 have captured meaningful economic benefits, and that several of them could still integrate additional workers without losing productivity gains.
The study examined data across dozens of high-income countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. It concludes that higher immigration rates are associated with significant improvements in labour productivity and a pronounced rise in investment, despite recent political debate that has often portrayed migration as economically harmful.
Key empirical findings
Authors report that the total number of immigrants coming to OECD countries from outside the bloc rose to about 100 million in 2024, up from about 25 million in 1990. Over the same period many native populations experienced negative growth. The paper quantifies the productivity effect: an increase in immigrants equal to 1% of a country’s population is associated with a 1.2% rise in GDP per worker within five years and a 1.9% rise over ten years.
Those productivity gains appear to be tied closely to investment dynamics. The paper states that a substantial portion of the observed rise in GDP per worker is realized through strong growth in investments during and after periods of higher immigration.
Country illustrations
The study highlights several country-level examples to illustrate the magnitudes involved. In Spain, the share of immigrants in the adult population rose by 15 percentage points between 1990 and 2024. Over that interval, actual GDP per worker increased by about 75%. Based on the estimated relationships, the paper suggests as much as one third of Spain’s productivity growth per worker during this period may be attributed to the inflow of immigrants.
In the United Kingdom the foreign-born share of the total population rose by around 10 percentage points. The paper estimates that immigration accounted for about 19% of GDP per person growth out of a total increase of 60% in the same period.
Broader implications for Europe and settler economies
The findings are particularly pertinent for the European Union, where the natural change of population has been negative since 2015 and fell further following the COVID-19 pandemic. Given those demographic headwinds, the estimated productivity contribution from immigration carries direct implications for growth and labour market capacity across member states.
The analysis also draws on the experiences of countries such as Canada and Australia, where large foreign-born populations coexist with continued productivity and investment responses to immigration. The paper interprets those cases as evidence that there remains room in some economies to absorb additional workers without diluting the positive relationship between inflows and productivity.
Political context and study scope
The research arrives amid rising political tensions over migration in several advanced economies. The paper notes that far-right, anti-immigrant parties have elevated immigration as a central political issue and that this trend has helped bring the subject near the top of national agendas in countries including the U.S., Germany and Britain. The study, however, focuses on the measurable links between immigration and economic indicators across OECD countries rather than on policy prescriptions.
Conclusions emphasized by the authors
Authors conclude that receiving countries’ labour productivity grew significantly during and after periods of higher immigration rates. The estimated coefficients are described as often statistically significant and economically large. Taken together, the paper argues that a notable share of per-worker GDP growth in several high-immigration countries between 1990 and 2024 can be connected to immigrant inflows, with investment growth an important transmission channel.
Summary takeaway
The study provides empirical evidence linking higher immigration to stronger productivity and investment outcomes in wealthy OECD countries since 1990, highlights sizeable contributions in nations such as Spain and the UK, and suggests that some economies can continue to absorb more foreign-born workers without eroding those benefits.