Summary
Crude oil and condensate shipments from principal Gulf producers were broadly unchanged in July, maintaining an average near 10.7 million barrels per day and remaining roughly 40% lower than pre-war levels, according to shipping data cited by market trackers. That relative steadiness in volumes has eased immediate concerns of a larger, acute supply shock.
Monthly flows and composition
Data compiled by Kpler showed combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran rose about 2% from June, reaching an average of 10.7 million barrels per day in July. Shipments had exceeded 12 million to 13 million barrels per day during the first half of the month before slowing after fighting between Iran and the United States resumed.
Iraq accounted for the largest proportion of the monthly increase, effectively doubling its exports compared with June. That surge was supported in part by greater flows from Kuwait and Iran, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE posted lower shipments during the period.
Vortexa analyst George Morris attributed part of Iraq's July uplift to nine additional very large crude carrier loadings recorded during the month.
Waterway traffic and regional security
Tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb continued to run well below the levels seen before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28. Reporting to the International Maritime Organization showed at least 14 vessels reported attacks in the region in July, up from eight reported incidents in June.
Separately, Saudi crude loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu declined after July 20 as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi fighters raised attacks near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Energy Aspects data indicated Yanbu loadings dropped to 3.0 million barrels per day after July 20, down from 3.8 million barrels per day in the April-through-June period.
Production notes and inventory context
Kuwait increased crude production to 1.971 million barrels per day in July from roughly 1.65 million barrels per day in June, Reuters reported.
Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said this week that the world has lost more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the war began. Nasser added that rebuilding global inventories would take about 18 months at a replenishment rate of 2.1 million barrels per day even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately.
Takeaway
July's figures show modest month-on-month resilience in Gulf crude flows, with gains concentrated in Iraq and supported by Kuwait and Iran, while overall regional exports remain materially below pre-conflict benchmarks. Key chokepoints and attacks reported in the maritime domain continue to constrain throughput and redirect loadings, particularly in Red Sea terminals.
What this covers
- Combined exports from five Gulf producers averaged 10.7 million bpd in July - roughly 40% under pre-war levels (Kpler).
- Shipments peaked at 12-13 million bpd in the first half of July before easing as fighting between Iran and the United States resumed.
- Iraq doubled its exports month-on-month, aided by nine extra VLCC loadings (Vortexa).
- Reported attacks on vessels rose to at least 14 in July versus eight in June (IMO reporting).
- Yanbu Red Sea loadings fell to 3.0 million bpd after July 20 from 3.8 million bpd in April-June (Energy Aspects).
- Kuwait's production increased to 1.971 million bpd in July from about 1.65 million bpd in June (Reuters).
- Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said more than 2.6 billion barrels have been lost since the conflict began and rebuilding inventories would take about 18 months at 2.1 million bpd.