Overview
Refining margins across the euro area have climbed markedly in recent months and are now close to record highs, according to a European Central Bank blog post published on Friday. The post links the rise in margins to higher retail fuel prices and reports that the contribution of margins to those prices is expected to hit its high point in August before easing.
Recent margin moves
The blog highlights sizable moves in both diesel and petrol margins. For diesel, refining margins reached €0.35 per litre of retail price in the first three weeks of July, up from €0.10 per litre before the U.S. and Israeli war in Iran. Petrol margins increased from €0.04 of the retail price in February to €0.23 in July.
Futures-based outlook
Using refined diesel futures data as of July 20, the blog projects that the contribution from margins will peak in August and then decline over time. The post states that by the end of 2027 margins are expected to be about €0.16, a level the blog describes as close to what was observed at the end of February 2026.
Inflation and price context
The ECB blog notes that euro zone inflation rose to 2.9% in July, up from rates close to 2% before the war in Iran. Brent crude oil prices have remained near $90 a barrel, a price environment the blog says could broaden price pressures and increase the chance that the central bank would need to raise interest rates.
Drivers of wider margins
The post points to specific supply-side developments as causes of the margin widening. Disruptions to refining operations and to fuel exports in the Middle East, combined with lower refinery throughput in Russia, have tightened global fuel supplies and helped push margins higher.
Caveat
The blog post is presented as analysis and does not necessarily reflect the formal position of the European Central Bank.