Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
624 total articles
Barclays forecasts the USD/HKD pair will remain capped and does not expect a sustained break above 7.84 in the coming weeks. While SOFR has climbed relative to HIBOR recently and carry-demand has supported long USD/HKD positions, mid-year dividend flows and potential Hong Kong rate support could limit further widening of the U.S.-Hong Kong rate gap…
Barclays believes recent Reserve Bank of India measures have removed the worst-case tail risks for the rupee. The bank estimates possible FCNR inflows of $35 billion to $50 billion and additional ECB and FAR bond inflows of $15 billion to $20 billion, which together could push total inflows well above $70 billion, offsetting current external pressu…
Barclays expects the Indonesian rupiah to find stability in the near term following a period of weakness driven by one-way sentiment, seasonal headwinds in the second quarter and a stronger U.S. dollar since the Middle East conflict. The bank highlights Bank Indonesia's 100 basis points of additional tightening and other measures to reduce hedging …
Barclays finds that a slowdown in foreign sales of Korean equities has provided relief for the Korean won, with policy measures and reduced resident outflows contributing to a firmer currency. The bank's modelling quantifies the impact of equity outflows on the exchange rate and outlines factors that could limit further depreciation while flagging …
Barclays anticipates that the Malaysian ringgit will gain from an expected weakening of the U.S. dollar heading into the summer months, with gradual appreciation in the Chinese yuan adding medium-term support. The bank warns that developments such as a U.S.-Iran agreement, lower oil prices, higher-for-longer U.S. rates and increased hedging activit…
Mizuho has reduced its euro price objective to $1.11 from $1.1350, arguing the euro remains rich relative to the interest rate differential between the United States and Europe. The move comes as the dollar benefits from safe-haven demand tied to technology-sector weakness and higher U.S. real yields; the bank also initiated a short in EUR/JPY with…
A technology-driven equity sell-off on Wednesday prompted broad safe-haven flows into the US dollar, leaving both the pound and the euro softer. Sterling slid despite reduced political uncertainty in the UK, while euro weakness was amplified by weaker German services activity and hawkish signals from an ECB official.
Binance has told Reuters it intends to remain in the European Union and will pursue alternative avenues to obtain regulatory approval after its application under a new licence framework collapsed. The company's European head said Binance may seek authorisation through another jurisdiction after its bid to secure a Greek licence did not succeed. Reg…
Bank of America strategists say the Australian dollar is navigating offsetting forces as it trades beneath 0.70 against the U.S. dollar. Net positioning has flipped short for the first time since January, spot sits below the firm’s model-based fair value, and the pair is nearing a pivotal technical level. The bank prefers buying dips and retains a …
European sovereign yields declined further on Wednesday as markets pared back expectations for a prolonged European Central Bank tightening cycle. A drop in oil prices below $80 a barrel and expanding global crude flows relieved immediate inflation fears tied to recent Middle Eastern tensions, supporting bond prices. At the same time, divergent eco…
Most Asian currencies declined as the U.S. dollar hovered near a 13-month high, driven by stronger bets on further Federal Reserve rate increases and demand for safe-haven assets after a rout in global technology shares. The South Korean won was among the weakest, while the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen remained under pressure amid policymaker sign…
Barclays expects the New Zealand dollar to appreciate in the months ahead, citing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's guidance that policy rates will be raised by a total of 75 basis points by the end of 2026. The bank notes that a lower starting point for rates and better-than-expected growth in late 2025 and early 2026 underpin its constructive vie…
Barclays reiterated a bullish outlook for the Australian dollar in its latest forecasts, while signalling a modest reduction in conviction versus earlier projections. The bank highlighted Australia's role as a primary beneficiary of the AI-related commodity cycle, which it says strengthens terms of trade. Barclays also cited supportive hedging flow…
Barclays is sticking with its view that the Swiss franc will slowly gain ground versus the euro, forecasting that the EUR/CHF rate will move toward 0.90. The bank highlights the Swiss National Bank's reluctance to deploy negative rates or substantially larger foreign exchange interventions, while noting that current account trends and growth figure…
Barclays' foreign exchange team expects the British pound to remain broadly steady following the announcement of Prime Minister Starmer's resignation. The bank points to sterling's resilience against political and fiscal headwinds during the second quarter and anticipates continued interest rate support from the Monetary Policy Committee despite so…
Barclays projects the dollar-yen exchange rate will remain close to the 160 level as Japan confronts policy-driven inflation pressure and persistent capital outflows that counteract foreign exchange interventions. The bank points to the Takaichi administration's 'high pressure economy' approach, elevated oil prices, and strong outbound investment f…
Barclays attributes recent euro strength to its role as the main alternative to the dollar since Liberation Day and to higher US risk premiums. The bank believes a sustained period of US economic outperformance driven by AI and a more independent Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh would support a partial unwinding of the dollar’s premium. Barclays c…
The Russian rouble weakened on Tuesday while equities fell to their lowest level in three years as consumers across the country formed long queues for petrol following a run of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. The Moscow Exchange index plunged before a modest rebound, and the currency slid past the 75-per-dollar level for the first time since…
The South African rand weakened on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar firmed on expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish stance. The rand traded at 16.50 per dollar at 13:49 GMT, down about 0.6% from the previous close. Market positioning, domestic social unrest and a soft leading business cycle indicator for April added to investor c…
Sterling weakened against the dollar as a broad-based rise in the U.S. currency and disappointing UK PMI figures outweighed some political easing following Keir Starmer's resignation as prime minister. The flash June PMI showed the UK private sector contracting for a second month, driven by a notable services slowdown, while manufacturing showed mi…
Citi's research places the EUR/JPY exchange rate at about ¥184 per euro for the 2017-2025 window and close to ¥191 per euro for 2023-2025. The report notes no clear price distortion currently, while acknowledging that Japanese government yen-buying operations may have left the pair slightly undervalued. Gains in Japanese equities are identified as …
Deutsche Bank reports that sterling's risk premium has moved little over the past two weeks despite rising expectations that Andy Burnham will assume the role of Prime Minister in mid- to late July after winning the Makerfield by-election. The bank says markets have been operating for some weeks under the premise that Burnham would be in place in t…
Eurozone government bond yields fell as a series of ECB officials delivered calming messages about the scale of future rate action and developments in U.S.-Iran talks, together with resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, helped cool fears of a prolonged energy shock. German 10-year Bund yields eased to 2.92%, short-dated yields moved lower,…
The U.S. dollar stayed close to a one-year high as markets reassess the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate increases. The Japanese yen remains under pressure near levels that previously triggered large-scale intervention, while other major currencies saw modest moves amid political and policy developments.
The Japanese yen traded dangerously close to its weakest level in nearly four decades, intensifying speculation regarding Tokyo’s readiness to deploy foreign exchange intervention. The USD/JPY pair stabilized around 161.58 yen, remaining perilously close to its 2024 peak of 161.96 yen. Breaching the 162 yen threshold would situate the currency at l…
