Currencies August 20, 2026 04:19 PM

Loonie Strengthens to Near Three-Month Peak as Oil Rises and Trade Talks Continue

Canadian dollar gains as crude climbs and negotiators from Ottawa and Washington meet to advance a trade deal

By Caleb Monroe
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The Canadian dollar strengthened to its highest level in almost three months against the U.S. dollar amid rising oil prices and ongoing Canada-U.S. trade negotiations. The currency traded slightly higher at 1.3790 per U.S. dollar, touching an intraday low of 1.3757 - its firmest since May 21. Market moves also reflected concerns about expanding U.S. government debt and related shifts in the U.S. dollar.

Loonie Strengthens to Near Three-Month Peak as Oil Rises and Trade Talks Continue
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Key Points

  • Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.3790 per U.S. dollar, touching 1.3757 intraday - strongest since May 21.
  • Rising oil prices supported the loonie, with U.S. crude futures about 2% higher at $87.50 per barrel.
  • Canada and U.S. trade negotiators met for a second day in Washington aiming to finalize a trade deal that could reduce existing tariffs and counter duties; Canadian bond yields rose during the session.

The Canadian dollar moved to its strongest point in nearly three months against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as crude oil prices climbed and investors tracked talks between Canadian and U.S. trade officials.

The currency traded 0.1% firmer at 1.3790 per U.S. dollar, equivalent to 72.52 U.S. cents, and reached an intraday best of 1.3757 - its strongest showing since May 21.

Market participants flagged two main drivers behind the loonie's advance. First, oil - a major export for Canada - was on the rise. U.S. crude oil futures traded about 2% higher at $87.50 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of possible retaliation against countries supporting Iran, a move that pushed energy prices up during the session.

Second, a softer U.S. dollar amid investor concern over the size of U.S. government debt provided additional support for the Canadian currency. "Rising oil prices and broad U.S. dollar weakness tied to concerns about growing U.S. government debt supported the Canadian currency," said Darren Richardson, chief operating officer at Vantry Capital Inc.

Those concerns were underscored by a Treasury Department announcement on Wednesday that total U.S. debt had surpassed $40 trillion for the first time.

Despite pressure on the greenback earlier in the week, the U.S. dollar managed to edge higher against a basket of major currencies after the Treasury Department took steps intended to calm a bond market selloff.

Parallel to these market moves, top trade negotiators from Canada and the United States met in Washington for a second straight day on Thursday. Officials said they were working toward finalizing a trade agreement that could roll back months of tariffs and countervailing duties between the two countries.

On the fixed income side, Canadian bond yields rose over the course of the session, adding another dimension to the market picture as currency, energy and debt dynamics continued to interact.


Summary: The Canadian dollar reached near three-month highs as oil prices increased and Canada-U.S. trade negotiations resumed, while market participants also weighed U.S. debt concerns and shifts in the U.S. dollar.

Risks

  • Growing U.S. government debt and related market reactions may continue to influence U.S. dollar volatility, affecting currency and bond markets - impacting FX traders and fixed income investors.
  • Geopolitical statements that drive oil prices higher, such as warnings of retaliation related to Iran, can increase energy market volatility and affect energy exporters and importers.
  • Uncertainty over the outcome and timing of Canada-U.S. trade negotiations introduces potential volatility for sectors sensitive to tariffs and cross-border trade, including manufacturing and commodities.

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