Wheat contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade are projected to begin Tuesday trading down by 7 to 9 cents per bushel when markets reopen at 8:30 a.m. CDT. Traders cited lingering geopolitical concerns that have been underpinning price moves in recent sessions.
Markets earlier had rallied on worries that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might further impede grain exports transiting the Black Sea region. Prices retreated after those earlier gains as participants weighed fresh developments and domestic crop data.
Political developments in the Black Sea also escalated investor attention. Turkey publicly asked Russia and Ukraine to take steps aimed at ensuring navigational safety in the Black Sea after a drone attack struck a Turkish-owned vessel near Russia's Port of Novorossiysk. The strike seriously injured three crew members, prompting the maritime-safety appeal.
On the domestic front, U.S. Department of Agriculture weekly data released Monday showed a slight improvement in the spring wheat crop's condition. The good-to-excellent rating rose to 55% from 53% a week earlier, a modest change that market participants incorporated alongside geopolitical risk factors.
On price specifics, September soft red winter wheat on the CBOT was last quoted down 8-1/2 cents at $6.42-1/2 per bushel. Kansas City September hard red winter wheat was trading down 7-1/2 cents at $7.09-3/4 per bushel. Minneapolis September spring wheat was down 5 cents at $6.90 per bushel.
Taken together, the market picture shows sensitivity to external disruption risks in the Black Sea shipping lanes and to incremental domestic supply signals. Participants will likely continue to monitor maritime-safety developments and weekly USDA crop updates as they weigh position adjustments into Tuesday's session.
Key data points:
- Expected CBOT opening: down 7 to 9 cents per bushel at 8:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday.
- Spring wheat good-to-excellent rating (U.S.): 55%, up from 53% the prior week.
- Selected futures: CBOT Sep soft red winter -8-1/2 cents at $6.42-1/2; KC Sep hard red winter -7-1/2 cents at $7.09-3/4; Minneapolis Sep spring -5 cents at $6.90.